Fundamental & Technical Analysis by Coach Mark RoboAcademy during 17 – 21 June 2024

Hello everyone, welcome to the weekly analysis of currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD for the third week of June, during June 17-21, 2024.

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Last week, the U.S. dollar weakened across the board after the U.S. CPI report came in lower than expected. This led the market to adjust its expectations, anticipating two interest rate cuts by the end of this year. However, this movement was soon reversed following the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision. The FOMC forecasted only one rate cut this year despite the weak CPI report.

However, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell revised the forecast, making the situation seem less concerning, as the central bank remains highly data-dependent. The U.S. dollar started to recover as market caution increased, bringing more prudence into the market.

On the other hand, the euro was heavily impacted by the European elections, as political uncertainty weighed on confidence and led to increased bond risk and the selling of European stocks. The decline in the currency pair caused a break from key support levels, which ultimately intensified the selling pressure.

Technical Analysis

On Monday, the price tested the support zone around 1.06651 and then rebounded. This is expected to be a short-term correction. It is advisable to wait for the price to test the Fibonacci levels of 0.5-0.618 (1.07592-1.07963) and then check the price action for a confirmed sell signal.

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Fundamental Analysis

Last week, the British pound faced significant pressure mainly due to market risks and the strength of the U.S. dollar. If the market shifts back into a risk-on environment, we might see the U.S. dollar weaken against the pound once again.

This could be a crucial week for the British pound, as there are significant reports to watch, such as the UK’s CPI and the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy decision. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

Technical Analysis

It can be observed that the price has confirmed a break below the trend line and tested the 0.618 Fibonacci zone (1.26453). Currently, the price has slightly rebounded, which is expected to be a correction. Watch for price action around the 0.786 Fibonacci zone (1.27395). If there are signals to sell, you can target the 0.618 Fibonacci zone for the price to test it again.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Technical Analysis

Currently, the signals are not very clear. Prices could potentially go up or down, so it’s important to monitor the price action closely. The price has tested near the 0.618 Fibonacci level (2,290) and there has been a correction back. However, the price has not made a new high, as observed from the short-term trend lines, and there is a possibility that prices may continue to decline.

Right now, it’s advisable to wait and monitor the price closely to see if it returns to test the Fibonacci 0.618 level again.

If it holds without breaking lower, consider short-term scalping buys during correction phases and wait for an opportunity to sell again afterward.

If the price breaks out and drops below the Fibonacci 0.618 zone, wait for it to retest the breakout zone and observe the price action for a selling opportunity towards the approximate target around Fibonacci 0.5 (2,217).

Disclaimer: This article is solely an analysis from the coach at RoboAcademy and is not intended as investment advice in any way. Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

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