Economic Calendar
Australia Holds Steady, UK Falters as Growth Risks Rise
Australia’s labour market showed steady resilience in October 2025, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.4% and the participation rate inching higher to 6%. Employment rose to 14.6M, a gain of roughly 27K jobs from September, while the underemployment rate stayed at 5.8%. The employment-to-population ratio remained at 64%, and total hours worked grew slightly to 1.99B.
Compared with September, these figures suggest that hiring remains firm even as more people enter the workforce. The stable unemployment rate indicates that the market is absorbing the growing labour supply without showing signs of weakness. Rising hours worked also point to steady demand for labour, though the pace of growth has slowed. For the Reserve Bank of Australia, the data support a cautious stance. With the job market still tight and no clear signs of deterioration, the RBA is unlikely to rush into rate cuts. This steadiness tends to favor the Australian dollar, as it signals an economy holding up under current policy settings.
Meanwhile, in the United Kingdom, attention turns to the release of the third-quarter GDP and its accompanying details. Monthly GDP contracted by 0.1% in July and grew by 0.1% in August, while September GDP is forecasted to be unchanged. Bloomberg’s median estimate points to a modest 0.2% quarterly growth in Q3, though risks remain tilted to the downside. The September composite PMI fell sharply from 53.5 to 50.1, its lowest reading this year, signaling weaker momentum in both manufacturing and services. The upcoming Autumn Budget on November 26 also adds uncertainty, as concerns about fiscal tightening or new tax measures continue to weigh on sterling.
Overall, while Australia’s steady labour data support a firmer outlook for the AUD, the UK’s sluggish growth and budget-related anxieties are keeping pressure on the pound, underscoring the contrast between Australia’s resilience and the UK’s fragile economic backdrop.
Analysis by Coach Angel
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