Analysis & News

From a Sharp Gold Sell-Off… Is It Time for the Dollar’s Comeback? A Market is no longer the same. As we step into the first week of February 2026, global financial markets are standing at a critical turning point. Expectations that once felt certain have shifted. Investor confidence has become increasingly fragile, and the aggressive sell-off in traditional safe-haven assets like gold has sent shockwaves across nearly every financial instrument simultaneously. Gold, which recently hit a new all-time high, was sold off as if the plug had been pulled The U.S. dollar, weak for an extended period, is making a notable comeback U.S. equities are highly volatile—but refusing to collapse Oil prices are weakening amid rising economic concerns This is not just an ordinary week—it marks a regime shift in the market. From “confidence” → “caution”, and from “chasing prices” → “defensive positioning.” Let’s take a look at what signals each asset class is sending. 1. The First Tremor: U.S. Partial Government Shutdown In late January, the U.S. government entered a partial government shutdown after Congress failed to pass the budget in time. Consequences: Certain government agencies halted operations, leading to reduced data transparency Several key economic reports were delayed, increasing uncertainty 📌 Most importantly: There will be no NFP report this week. Normally, NFP is considered the “heartbeat of the market.” This time, markets are being forced to move on guesswork rather than guidance, resulting in unusually high volatility across all asset classes. 2. USD: From Villain to Safe Haven Last week saw a clear resurgence in U.S. dollar strength, particularly following the announcement of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair nominee, which helped lift the dollar from previously weakened levels. Impact: The dollar responded positively to expectations that the Fed will remain focused on inflation control Investors reduced inflation risk exposure and shifted back toward holding cash (USD) Even without NFP as a catalyst, the dollar continues to receive support from pockets of strong economic data and U.S. political uncertainty—positioning it as a temporary safe haven this week. 📌 USD sentiment remains short-term bullish, unless significantly weakened by negative economic data. 3. Gold: The Most Market-Shaking Story of the Week If there is one asset dominating headlines, it is undoubtedly gold. Toward the end of January, gold prices surged beyond the $5,000/oz level, driven by speculative demand fueled by shutdown fears and persistently high inflation concerns. However, following the Fed chair announcement and the transition into February, gold and precious metals experienced a violent sell-off. Prices plunged sharply, and although a minor rebound occurred, momentum was lost rapidly—triggering widespread market anxiety. Key reasons behind the sell-off: Expectations that the Fed, under new leadership, will prioritize inflation control and a stronger dollar Short-term profit-taking from non-yielding assets 📌 Gold sentiment may shift into a “base retest” phase, with key support around $4,600-4,500/oz. A recovery above this zone could present a medium-term buying opportunity. 4. U.S. Stocks: Highly Volatile, Yet Still Standing This week, Wall Street displayed notable volatility. Negative sentiment from gold and precious metals did not trigger a stock market collapse, as losses were absorbed by positive factors such as: Better-than-expected earnings from select major corporations Strong manufacturing data Optimism surrounding potential U.S.–India trade agreements Result: Major indices like the Dow Jones and S&P 500 closed firmly higher on the first trading day of February, while the Nasdaq remained more volatile. Nevertheless, shutdown-related uncertainty continues to drive two-way volatility, particularly in interest-rate-sensitive and high-valuation stocks. 📌 Equity market sentiment remains bullish, but with a thin margin for error—especially in technology and high-valuation sectors. 5. Oil: Weakening Alongside Risk Assets Oil prices declined sharply amid broad-based selling across commodities. Easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran reduced geopolitical risk premiums, diminishing one of oil’s key support factors. Both Brent and WTI fell more than expected, tracking the sell-off in gold and other metals, which added pressure to energy-related equities. 📌 Oil sentiment remains bearish in the short term, with close attention needed on supply dynamics and geopolitical developments. Market Summary This Week 💡 💹 USD strengthening 💰 Gold is searching for a new base 📊 U.S. equities sending mixed signals ⛽ Oil remains under pressure All of this is unfolding against the backdrop of a U.S. partial government shutdown and delayed economic data—fueling uncertainty while accelerating portfolio rebalancing and rapid position adjustments. Analysis by Coach Team —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Investors Watch Household Confidence Amid Trade Tensions and Shutdown Risk Global markets are trading with attention on US households as the Conference Board’s consumer confidence data is scheduled for release tonight. Over the past six months, confidence has been soft, with the index falling from 94.6 in October to 89.1 in December, while the University of Michigan sentiment gauge remained in the mid fifties, showing ongoing caution about jobs, inflation, and the economic outlook. Investors are watching closely to see if tonight’s reading shows any improvement that could signal stronger spending or if households remain cautious, adding another layer to existing political and trade uncertainties. Trade developments continue to draw attention in North America. Canadian Prime Minister Carney said the country is actively seeking new trade partners to reduce dependence on the United States and confirmed that the upcoming USMCA review will be robust. He also ruled out a snap election, helping reduce immediate political risk for investors watching North American trade ties. Meanwhile, US trade rhetoric remains active, with President Trump increasing tariffs on South Korean autos, lumber, pharmaceuticals, and other goods from 15% to 25% after South Korea’s legislature failed to approve a previously agreed trade deal. This move reinforces the idea that trade policy can shift quickly and affect global supply chains, even when broader growth data is stable. Domestic politics in the US also weigh on markets, with another partial government shutdown possible if funding is not approved by Friday at midnight. Funding for the Department of Commerce has already been secured, meaning key releases such as gross domestic product and the personal consumption expenditures price index should continue, but the Department of Labor’s funding is still in question. That raises the potential for delays in the monthly jobs report and the consumer price index, both closely watched by markets for clues on Federal Reserve policy. Other agencies tied to airport operations, including the TSA and FAA, could see operational disruption, while programs like SNAP and WIC remain funded through the fiscal year. Taken together, markets are navigating a mix of household sentiment, trade policy, and domestic political risk. Tonight’s US consumer confidence reading will be a key focus for investors, providing insight into whether households are ready to spend more in 2026 or continue to approach the year cautiously. Until there is clarity on consumer sentiment, trade agreements, and government funding, markets are likely to remain sensitive to headlines and cautious in positioning. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Durable Goods Report Takes Center Stage in a Crucial Global Data Week Today’s durable goods report matters more than usual because it will land at a time when politics, central bank credibility, and growth expectations are all colliding. After several months of sharp swings driven largely by aircraft orders, investors will be watching whether the headline number reflects a genuine improvement in underlying manufacturing demand or simply another transportation driven bounce. A solid increase in total orders would help confirm that October’s decline was more noise than signal, while a weak or negative reading would reinforce concerns that higher interest rates and global uncertainty are starting to bite into business spending. A particularly important focus will be orders excluding transportation. This core measure is widely viewed as a better guide to real manufacturing momentum because it strips out large and irregular aircraft bookings. If non transportation orders continue to grow steadily, it would suggest that factories remain busy and that US growth is still resilient despite political stress and tighter financial conditions. A slowdown here would raise questions about how long the economy can sustain the strong pace implied by recent GDP tracking estimates. Markets will also be watching capital goods orders excluding defense and aircraft, which serve as a proxy for business investment. Strength in this category would support the view that companies are still willing to invest in equipment and technology, while weakness would signal caution ahead of an election year and rising policy uncertainty. This component feeds directly into GDP calculations, so any surprise could shift expectations for Q4 growth. The durable goods report also arrives just ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, which adds to its importance. While no policy change is expected, stronger than expected orders could reinforce the Fed’s argument for patience on rate cuts, especially with growth still running hot. On the other hand, softer data would strengthen the case that restrictive policy is finally slowing demand, even if inflation remains sticky. Beyond the US durable goods report, global context will shape how markets digest the data this week. In Canada, attention will be on the Bank of Canada meeting and upcoming inflation and trade figures. Even though no rate move is expected, the tone matters. If Canadian data remain soft while US manufacturing shows resilience, it could widen the perceived growth gap between the two economies and weigh further on the loonie. Canada’s trade numbers are also important because recent deficits reflect shifting export patterns and vulnerability to US trade policy, which can amplify reactions to US economic surprises like durable goods orders. Japan remains a key source of volatility. Markets will be watching Tokyo inflation data, along with industrial production and retail sales, to gauge whether domestic price pressures are cooling fast enough to justify the Bank of Japan’s very slow approach to policy normalization. Any sign that inflation is stabilizing near 2 % without wage growth accelerating would keep pressure on the yen. That matters for US data because strong US orders paired with weak Japanese data tend to reinforce capital flows into the dollar, unless intervention risk dominates sentiment. In Australia, the focus will be on Q4 inflation and credit growth. Australia is one of the few major economies where markets are actively discussing the possibility of a rate hike later this year. If inflation prints hot while US durable goods show strength, it would reinforce the idea that global demand for industrial goods remains firm. That combination tends to support commodity linked currencies and metals prices, which feed back into expectations for US manufacturing exports. For the euro area, preliminary Q4 GDP and unemployment data will frame how investors interpret US resilience versus European stagnation or recovery. If euro area growth surprises to the upside while US durable goods rebound, it would soften the divergence narrative that has weighed on the euro. If Europe disappoints, strong US orders would underline the imbalance and keep capital flowing toward US assets despite political noise. In the UK, consumer credit and mortgage lending will be watched mainly for what they imply about domestic demand after stronger than expected GDP. If UK data remain firm, markets may further push back expectations for Bank of England rate cuts. In that case, US durable goods strength would be viewed as part of a broader picture of developed economies proving more resilient than feared, rather than a purely US specific story. China remains a critical background driver. Industrial profits and PMI data will help determine whether recent stabilization efforts are gaining traction. If Chinese manufacturing sentiment improves at the same time US durable goods orders rise, it would support the view that global manufacturing is finding a floor. Weak Chinese data, on the other hand, would raise concerns that US strength is increasingly domestic and potentially fragile if global demand does not follow. Taken together, tonight’s US durable goods report does not stand alone. Its market impact will depend on whether it aligns with or contradicts signals coming from other major economies. The bigger question for investors is whether global manufacturing momentum is stabilizing together, or whether the US is increasingly an outlier in a more uncertain global landscape. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

US Dollar Slides as Headline Risk Overshadows Strong Growth It is another day focused on politics rather than pure economics, with the US dollar trading unevenly as investors digest a dense mix of geopolitical headlines, trade threats, and shifting expectations around US monetary leadership. The dominant theme is uncertainty, and that uncertainty is keeping foreign exchange markets cautious rather than directional. European assets are under renewed pressure after Ukraine President Zelenskyy delivered unusually blunt criticism of Europe at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Zelenskyy argued that Europe still lacks real political power and continues to wait for direction from Washington rather than acting as a unified force. His remarks came against the backdrop of ongoing war with Russia and fresh concerns that US attention may shift elsewhere. For currency markets, this reinforces the perception that Europe remains structurally divided on defense and foreign policy, which tends to cap upside in the euro during periods of global stress. Zelenskyy also confirmed upcoming trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US in the United Arab Emirates, introducing cautious hope of diplomacy but no immediate relief for risk sentiment. The situation around Greenland added another layer of tension. President Trump reiterated that the US will work with NATO on Greenland security and suggested there are positive outcomes for Europe within the proposed framework. However, criticism from Zelenskyy over minimal European troop commitments highlights broader doubts about Europe's ability to project power. This keeps the euro and Scandinavian currencies sensitive to headlines rather than fundamentals, while the dollar continues to benefit from its role as the primary safe haven. In the US, political risk is increasingly intersecting with the financial system. Trump has filed a $5M lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase and CEO Dimon over alleged political debanking following the January 6 protest period. JPMorgan denies the allegations and says account closures were driven by regulatory expectations rather than politics. The case has revived debate over access to banking services and follows a recent executive order aimed at preventing banks from denying services based on political or religious views. While this issue does not directly move currencies, it adds to broader concerns about institutional stability and regulatory risk, factors that typically support the dollar during periods of uncertainty. Trade policy rhetoric is also back in focus. Trump said a 25% tariff on anyone dealing with Iran will take effect very soon, while also stating he would prefer to avoid escalation with Iran despite sending a large force toward the region. This mix of pressure and restraint has kept oil prices sensitive and has supported the dollar against energy importing currencies, while limiting gains in risk sensitive currencies tied to global growth. On the monetary policy front, attention is turning toward the Federal Reserve leadership transition. Trump confirmed he will announce his pick for Fed chair soon, and markets are actively pricing the outcome. BlackRock fixed income chief Rieder has seen his odds rise sharply after Trump called him very impressive, while former Fed Governor Warsh remains the frontrunner despite losing some momentum. Economic data in the background remains solid. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised third quarter US GDP growth slightly higher to a 4.4% annualized pace, the fastest in two years, supported by stronger exports and investment. Consumer spending was revised marginally lower but remains a key contributor to growth. Inflation measures such as PCE and core PCE for that quarter were unchanged, reinforcing the view that growth has remained strong without a renewed inflation surge. Mortgage rates recently hit a three year low, adding to the narrative that financial conditions are easing even as the Federal Reserve maintains a restrictive stance. Overall, the forex market is trading a political risk premium rather than reacting to single data points. The dollar has slipped this week as investors focus on rising political uncertainty, shifting trade policy signals, and questions surrounding future Fed leadership, despite continued evidence of solid US economic growth. As the dollar has softened, the euro has gained ground, supported more by dollar weakness than by a decisive improvement in Europe fundamentals. Even so, longer term questions around Europe's strategic direction and defense coordination remain in the background and limit enthusiasm. Until there is clearer guidance on US trade policy, Fed leadership, and geopolitical negotiations, currency markets are likely to remain volatile but largely range bound, with headlines continuing to drive short term moves more than traditional economic releases. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Trump Eases Trade Pressure, Shifts Focus to Greenland Talks and US Data Global markets are starting the day focused first on politics, after a series of high impact statements from US President Trump reshaped short term sentiment and reduced immediate tail risks that had been building over trade and geopolitics. The White House confirmed that tariffs scheduled to take effect on February first will not be imposed, following what Trump described as productive discussions with NATO Secretary General Rutte regarding Greenland and the broader Arctic region. The decision removed a key source of near term uncertainty for markets that had reacted negatively to the prospect of new trade barriers tied to the dispute. Trump framed the talks as the foundation of a future deal that would benefit the United States and all NATO members, while confirming that negotiations will be led by Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, and Special Envoy Witkoff, all reporting directly to him. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump reinforced his view that Greenland is strategically vital for US national security and argued that neither Denmark nor NATO is capable of defending the territory without US involvement. At the same time, he made a clear effort to calm markets by stating that military force would not be used to pursue any agreement, a comment that immediately helped stabilize risk sentiment after a volatile prior session. Equity markets rebounded, the dollar steadied, and some of the defensive demand for gold eased, although underlying geopolitical risk remains elevated. Trump’s broader remarks continued to pressure Europe and NATO, with repeated claims that the Us has been treated poorly by its allies and carries a disproportionate share of global security and economic support. These comments keep geopolitical risk firmly in play for currency and precious metal traders, even as the immediate tariff threat has been delayed. After the political headlines, attention shifted to economic data from Australia released this morning, which provided a more constructive tone for the Asia Pacific session. Australian labour market data for December showed a clear improvement, reinforcing the view that the economy is holding up better than feared despite higher interest rates. In seasonally adjusted terms, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, while employment increased to 14,684,100. The data provided near term support for the aussie, as it reduces pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to move quickly toward aggressive easing. While inflation remains a separate challenge, the labour market data suggests domestic demand is not collapsing, which keeps Australia relatively well positioned compared with other developed economies. Looking ahead to the US session, market focus will turn to two key releases tonight, the final estimate of US GDP growth for the fourth quarter and the Core PCE Price Index. These releases are especially important given the political backdrop and ongoing debate about the future path of the interest rates. The most recent confirmed GDP data shows that the US economy grew at a strong annualized pace of 4.3% in the third quarter, driven by resilient consumer spending and investment. That strong performance set a high bar heading into the fourth quarter, where growth is expected to slow but remain positive. Based on published forecasts from professional forecasters and prior estimates, expectations for fourth quarter GDP point to modest but continued expansion, reflecting softer consumption momentum and tighter financial conditions late in the year. While exact figures will be confirmed in the final release, markets are positioned for growth that is meaningfully slower than the third quarter but still consistent with an economy avoiding recession. Any meaningful revision higher or lower could have an outsized impact on the dollar, particularly against low yielding currencies and risk sensitive pairs. The Core PCE Price Index will be equally important for market direction. The most recent confirmed data shows that core PCE inflation rose by around 0.2% month over month in each of the past several readings, with the year over year rate near 2.8% as of September. That places inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, but well below the peak levels seen in earlier periods. Expectations for tonight’s release center on another steady monthly increase, reinforcing the idea that inflation is cooling gradually rather than falling sharply. Persistent services inflation remains a concern for policymakers, and this data will be closely watched for confirmation that disinflation has not stalled. For forex and gold traders, the combination of easing tariff fears, strong Australian labour data, and critical US growth and inflation releases creates a complex trading environment. A softer US GDP or inflation outcome could weaken the dollar and renew upside momentum in gold, while stronger data would likely reinforce dollar support and cap gains in precious metals. With geopolitics still simmering and central bank credibility under scrutiny, markets remain highly sensitive to both headlines and hard data, making tonight’s US releases a key risk event for positioning into the next trading sessions. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Markets Brace for Volatility as Trump Escalates Trade Rhetoric Before Davos Markets opened with a cautious tone as traders reacted to a fresh wave of political risk coming out of Washington and Europe. The US dollar was mixed against major peers as investors weighed rising geopolitical tension, renewed uncertainty around US trade policy, and growing concern about the future independence of the Federal Reserve. The main driver of sentiment has been President Trump’s escalating push to bring Greenland under US control, paired with explicit threats of tariffs against European countries that oppose the move. Markets were unsettled after Trump declined to spell out how far he is willing to go to achieve his Greenland objective, responding only that investors and governments will find out. The comments came just ahead of his trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he said multiple meetings are scheduled specifically to discuss Greenland. The threat of tariffs aimed at Europe until Greenland is handed over has raised fears of retaliation from European leaders, and that risk is filtering directly into currency pricing. The euro has come under pressure as traders consider the possibility of a renewed transatlantic trade confrontation, while safe haven demand has provided intermittent support to currencies like the Swiss franc. The uncertainty is not limited to trade. Trump’s increasingly public effort to influence the Federal Reserve is adding another layer of risk for forex markets. Speculation is intensifying over whether Chair Powell will leave the Fed entirely once his term as chair ends in May, or remain on the Board of Governors through January 31, 2028. Prediction markets are currently pricing a high probability that Powell exits before August 2026, while analysts at Nomura and Evercore ISI argue that political pressure could instead harden resistance within the Fed and lead senior officials to stay. For currency traders, this debate matters because it directly affects expectations for US interest rate policy and credibility. Any perception that Fed independence is being weakened could undermine confidence in the dollar, even if Trump continues to push for lower rates. Trump has also reiterated his belief that the US will not have a trade deficit next year and repeated claims that economic growth is booming, including the suggestion that fourth quarter GDP could surpass 5% growth. While these statements have offered short term support to dollar sentiment, traders remain wary given the lack of new data and the broader political backdrop. Trump also said he does not know how the Supreme Court will rule on tariffs and indicated that Congress may not be needed for tariff related dividend checks, reinforcing concerns that trade policy could remain unpredictable. From Europe, comments from European Central Bank President Lagarde added to the cautious mood. She warned that uncertainty is back and described Trump’s threats as a movie Europe has seen before. Lagarde also noted that deteriorating relations with the US could accelerate European integration. These remarks underline the risk that political tension could spill into monetary and fiscal coordination, which is relevant for the euro outlook in the near term. Looking ahead to today, traders will be focused less on economic releases and more on headlines from Davos. Any signals from meetings between US and European leaders on Greenland, tariffs, or trade retaliation could quickly move currencies. Markets will also remain sensitive to further developments around the Federal Reserve, including any indication of who Trump may nominate as the next chair, a decision Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested could come as soon as next week. For now, the main thing to be aware of is headline driven volatility. Sudden comments on tariffs, Fed control, or geopolitical strategy have the potential to trigger sharp moves, making risk management especially important as the trading day unfolds. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Markets Turn Defensive as US Europe Tensions Over Greenland Weigh on Dollar and Lift Gold Global markets opened the week under a cloud of rising geopolitical tension, with the United States stepping up pressure on its European allies over Greenland and financial markets reacting with a defensive tone. Washington has threatened to impose tariffs of 10% on a group of European countries starting next month, with the rate set to rise to 25% in June, using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act as the legal basis. Several European governments are now openly discussing retaliation, and an emergency leaders summit is scheduled for later this week. Adding to the uncertainty, the Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on the legality of using this authority, while also hearing an appeal on Wednesday related to the president’s effort to remove Governor Cook from the Federal Reserve Board. With yesterday being a national holiday in the US, markets there were closed, but the global response was already visible elsewhere. The dollar traded with a heavier bias against major currencies, reflecting investor unease rather than any specific economic data shock. Equity markets outside the US were mostly lower, while demand for traditional safe havens picked up. Gold and other precious metals were supported by the renewed strain between the US and Europe, as traders looked for protection against policy driven volatility. In currency markets, the tension has made it difficult to identify clear winners, with the situation broadly negative for risk sensitive assets. Outside of the immediate standoff, it remains hard to see who benefits from this environment beyond Russia and China, which sit outside the transatlantic dispute. Political rhetoric has intensified the situation. President Trump reportedly linked his aggressive stance on Greenland to last year’s decision not to award him the Nobel Peace Prize, telling Norway’s prime minister that he no longer felt an obligation to think purely of peace. The comments have deepened concern among European officials, particularly as the tariff threat targets Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland, on top of existing export tariffs of 10% for the United Kingdom and 15% for the European Union. While British Prime Minister Starmer has called for calm discussions and said he does not believe military action will occur, protests in Greenland over the weekend highlighted how sensitive the issue has become. Greenland’s prime minister said the island would not be pressured, and officials there noted that the strong response from allies showed this dispute goes beyond Greenland alone. In Asia, attention remained on Japan, where the bond market continues to send warning signals. The sell off in Japanese government bonds followed confirmation of a snap election next month and pushed yields to levels not seen in decades. The 10 year Japanese government bond yield traded at 2.24% for the first time since 1999. Longer dated bonds saw even sharper moves, with the 30 year yield reaching 3.55% and the 40 year yield moving above 3.87%, later touching 4% for the first time. These moves mark a dramatic shift for a market long associated with near zero interest rates. Despite the scale of the bond sell off, there was no clear sign of spillover into global bond markets, and contrary to late week speculation, there was no evidence of Japanese currency intervention. For forex and gold traders, the message is straightforward. Political risk is back at the center of market pricing, and it is weighing on the dollar while supporting precious metals. With the US and Europe on a collision course over trade and sovereignty issues, and Japan dealing with historic moves in its bond market, volatility is likely to stay elevated. In this environment, gold remains well supported as a hedge, while currency markets are likely to stay sensitive to headlines rather than fundamentals until tensions ease. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Gold Surges to Record Levels as Trump Tariff Threats Drive Safe Haven Demand Global foreign exchange markets are entering the new trading week under a cloud of rising political risk as tensions between the United States and Europe escalate over President Trump’s renewed tariff threats tied to Greenland. Currencies moved defensively at the end of last week, with investors seeking safety as trade policy once again became a geopolitical weapon rather than a purely economic tool. The US dollar initially found support from risk aversion, while the euro and several European currencies came under pressure as markets assessed the possibility of a fresh breakdown in EU-US trade relations. The trigger for the latest volatility was Trump’s announcement that the US would impose escalating tariffs on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland if those countries continue to oppose US plans to acquire Greenland. Tariffs are set to begin at 10% on Feb. 1 and rise to 25% on June 1 if no deal is reached. European leaders reacted swiftly, calling the move unacceptable and completely wrong, while reaffirming full support for Denmark and Greenland. The EU responded by signaling that approval and implementation of the EU-US trade agreement reached in August could be suspended. Senior lawmakers said that moving forward with the deal is not possible under current conditions, raising the risk of a broader trade confrontation. From a forex perspective, this dispute matters because it threatens one of the largest trade relationships in the world. Any delay or collapse in the EU-US trade agreement would likely weigh on the euro, especially if retaliatory measures such as the EU Anti Coercion Instrument are activated. Analysts have warned that additional tariffs would raise costs for US consumers and deepen uncertainty for European exporters. Berenberg Bank’s chief economist described the situation as a bad geopolitical headache and a moderately significant economic problem, estimating that a further 10% levy could lift US consumer prices by up to 0.15%. Markets are also watching gold, which has already hit record highs as investors hedge against escalating political and trade risks. The issue has also taken on a security dimension, adding to market unease. Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, and Denmark is a NATO member. Several European leaders and Canada have stressed that sovereignty and territorial integrity must be respected. Canadian Prime Minister Carney publicly stated that Canada stands fully behind NATO obligations and supports Denmark regarding Greenland. This backdrop raises uncomfortable questions for investors about alliance stability, something that currency markets are particularly sensitive to during periods of stress. Looking ahead to today, traders will be focused on headlines rather than data. The EU has called an emergency meeting, and any signals about freezing the trade deal or preparing retaliatory measures could move the euro quickly. Comments from US officials will also be closely watched, especially as the Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on Trump’s use of emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs. Treasury Secretary Bessent has said it is very unlikely the court will overturn the policy, adding another layer of uncertainty for markets. For now, the main concern for forex traders is the risk of a rapid escalation that undermines confidence and pushes investors toward safe haven currencies. Volatility could remain elevated, particularly in euro-dollar and in currencies linked to global trade. While dialogue is still officially ongoing, the tone has clearly hardened, and markets are being reminded that political decisions can move exchange rates just as much as economic data. Traders should remain cautious, watch headlines closely, and be prepared for sharp moves driven by policy statements rather than traditional fundamentals. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

US Dollar Steadies as Fed Pushes Back on Rate Cut Pressure and Defends Independence Global currency markets were largely driven by United States Federal Reserve messaging, with the US dollar finding renewed support as multiple Fed officials pushed back against the idea of near term rate cuts and strongly defended central bank independence. For traders, the message was clear. The Fed is not ready to ease policy without firm evidence that inflation is moving decisively toward the 2% target, and political pressure will not change that stance. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee acknowledged that low unemployment claims did not come as a surprise and said the most important task facing the Fed remains getting inflation back to 2%. He noted that rates can still go down by a fair amount over time, but only if data clearly confirms that inflation pressures are retreating. Goolsbee also stressed that services inflation is not yet under control, reinforcing the idea that the inflation fight is unfinished. While he expects rate cuts at some point this year, he made it clear that patience and data confirmation are essential. For the dollar, this cautious tone helped limit downside pressure and kept expectations for aggressive easing in check. Similar views were echoed by Philly Fed President Paulson, who said rate cuts can wait and expressed strong support for Chair Powell. Paulson indicated confidence in maintaining current interest rates at the upcoming meeting and suggested that the neutral rate sits slightly below current levels, implying that policy is not excessively restrictive. She also acknowledged that labor market risks slightly outweigh concerns about persistent inflation, but stopped short of arguing that this imbalance requires immediate action. This balanced but firm message reinforced the perception that the Fed is comfortable staying on hold for now, a stance that tends to favor the US dollar against lower yielding currencies. Beyond policy guidance, Fed officials also addressed the growing political noise surrounding the central bank. Goolsbee warned that attacks on Fed independence could ultimately cause inflation to surge again, arguing that undermining the institution’s credibility would be a serious mistake. He strongly supported Powell, calling him highly effective and emphasizing that central bank independence is critical to maintaining price stability. These comments reassured markets that the Fed is unlikely to bend to external pressure, which helps anchor longer term inflation expectations and supports confidence in the dollar as a global reserve currency. From a broader economic perspective, recent Fed commentary highlighted that inflation is still running close to 3%, above target, while growth remains resilient. The economy expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter of 2025, supported by solid consumer spending and investment, particularly in technology related areas. Although the labor market has cooled, unemployment claims remain near historic lows and job losses are largely occurring through attrition rather than widespread layoffs. Fed officials repeatedly argued that cutting rates now could risk reigniting inflation without delivering meaningful support to employment. Looking at the trading day ahead, there are no major releases scheduled on the economic calendar, leaving markets without fresh macro data to react to. In this environment, price action is likely to be driven by headlines rather than numbers. Any developments on the political front, especially if President Trump responds aggressively to recent Fed statements or renews criticism of Chair Powell and the central bank, could quickly influence risk sentiment and currency flows. With data risks limited, traders are likely to stay highly sensitive to political commentary, making the US dollar particularly reactive to news tied to Fed independence and policy credibility. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Weak UK GDP Highlights Fragile Economy While US Labor Market Holds and Manufacturing Faces Pressure In the UK, official figures show that the economy has been weak and quite choppy over recent months. In the three months to July 2025, GDP grew by a modest 0.1 % in the quarter, slowing from stronger growth earlier in the year. Monthly data for June showed a bounce of growth after earlier declines in April and May, but the direction has not been robust, and separate reports suggest the economy actually shrank in October 2025 on both a monthly and three-month basis, with services flat and production struggling to contribute to growth. Over the past six months the trend has been one of sluggish performance, stalled momentum and some contractions rather than strong expansion. Economists generally expect another very small growth figure in the region of a few tenths of a percent as consumer spending and services activity remain subdued amid political and fiscal uncertainty. Overall, UK growth remains fragile and close to stagnation rather than showing clear acceleration. Turning to the US weekly unemployment claims, the most recent data showed initial jobless claims rose slightly to around 208K, edging up from the prior week but still near relatively low levels compared with historical norms. The four-week moving average sat just over 211K, indicating some short-term volatility but no dramatic surge in layoffs. Ongoing claims, which capture people continuing to receive benefits, were around 1,914K, also at elevated levels but not spiking sharply. Labor market conditions have clearly loosened compared with the tight post-pandemic years, with job growth slowing and layoffs rising in some sectors, but layoffs are not climbing as fast as in deep recessions. The consensus expectation for today’s weekly claims was for a slight uptick around 215K. For US regional manufacturing gauges, the Empire State manufacturing index from the showed a notable drop in December 2025. That month’s index came out below zero at around -3.9, meaning more firms reported contracting conditions than expanding ones, a sharp reversal from a healthy positive reading in November. Looking at the pattern over the last six months, the Empire State index swung between moderately positive readings and sharp declines, reflecting uneven sentiment among manufacturers in New York. Markets were watching for a small positive reading in January 2026, with forecasts around slightly above zero, but the trend still shows a sector facing headwinds rather than steady expansion. Finally, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, which surveys firms in the broader Third Federal Reserve District, was still deeply negative in the last release available, dropping to around -10.2 in December 2025 from much milder contraction the month before. That index has alternated between contraction and modest expansion over the past six months, but the most recent data show contraction in activity dominating. Readings below zero here generally point to slowing orders, production and business conditions among surveyed manufacturers. Together these pieces of data suggest that the US labor market is cooling but not collapsing, regional manufacturing activity remains under pressure, and in the UK growth is weak and close to stalling. Economic releases due today are likely to show similarly cautious readings rather than sharp improvement across these indicators. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Holiday Spending Supports US Economy as Inflation Signals Remain Mixed Focus today will be on US retail sales and PPI data. Retail sales have sent mixed but generally stable signals through the second half of the year, supported by steady consumer demand and seasonal spending. Year over year growth remained solid, reflecting consumers continuing to spend despite higher interest rates and elevated prices. Private sector indicators supported this view. The National Retail Federation Retail Monitor showed that sales growth remained positive heading into the holiday season, with November and December posting modest month to month gains and year over year growth of around 3.5%. Core retail sales, which exclude autos and gasoline, also increased on both a monthly and annual basis, suggesting that underlying consumer demand stayed healthy rather than being driven by price swings in fuel or vehicle sales. With official Census Bureau retail sales data for November released today, expectations are shaped by these private reports, which point to continued strength during the holiday shopping period rather than a sharp slowdown. At the same time, producer price data over the last six months has shown easing but still present inflation pressure at the wholesale level. The most recent published Producer Price Index data, covering September, showed a moderate monthly increase and an annual rise of about 2.7% or final demand. Earlier months in mid-year saw a mix of small increases and relatively flat readings, indicating that price pressures faced by producers were cooling compared with earlier in the inflation cycle. Core PPI readings remained contained, reinforcing the idea that broad based inflation was not re accelerating. Data releases for October and November were delayed by the federal government shutdown and are being published today, making this report especially important for markets. Based on the trend through September, producer prices appear to be rising at a steady but manageable pace, rather than showing signs of renewed inflation stress. Taken together, the last six months paint a picture of a US economy where consumers are still spending, though more selectively, and where inflation at the producer level is no longer surging but has not disappeared. Today’s retail sales and PPI releases are expected to confirm resilient consumer activity during the holiday season and continued moderation in wholesale price pressures, helping investors and policymakers better judge how the economy is entering the new year. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Markets Caught Between Trade Threats and Fed Credibility Fears Global markets opened the day under a heavy mix of geopolitical tension, policy uncertainty, and fragile confidence in the US economic framework. Sentiment was first shaken by a sharp statement attributed to President Trump declaring that any country doing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff on all trade with the United States. The message, framed as final and conclusive, immediately raised concerns about renewed trade friction, supply chain disruption, and higher costs for global commerce. At the same time, reports that the White House is weighing an offer for Iran nuclear talks while also leaning toward possible military action added to the sense that geopolitical risk is once again moving to the center of market attention. Against this backdrop, investors are also digesting an escalating and unprecedented clash between the Trump administration and Fed Chair Powell. Former Fed Chair and Treasury Secretary Yellen publicly criticized an investigation into Powell, warning that it undermines the independence of the central bank and describing the situation as extremely chilling. Yellen said she was surprised markets were not more alarmed, stressing that the credibility of the Fed is a foundation of financial stability. Powell has confirmed that the Justice Department has served the Fed with grand jury subpoenas related to his testimony before Congress last June about the renovation of the Fed headquarters. The Justice Department has not formally confirmed perjury charges, but Powell has called the investigation unprecedented and questioned its motivation, while reaffirming that he has acted without political fear or favor. Markets are uneasy because most investors have never seen a dispute between the president and the Fed play out so publicly and with such high stakes. The core risk is that pressure on the Fed could weaken trust in its ability to set interest rates independently. While inflation expectations have been trending lower, any erosion of Fed credibility could reverse that progress. Year ahead inflation expectations stood at 4.2% in January according to the University of Michigan survey, the lowest reading since January 2025, but analysts warn that this progress is fragile. Some strategists argue that if confidence in the Fed cracks, inflation expectations could rise again, pushing investors toward real assets such as commodities and energy related stocks as a hedge. There are broader implications as well. The US financial system rests heavily on debt, and global investors trust that the United States will honor its obligations in part because of a credible and independent central bank. If that trust weakens, the cost of capital could rise for the government and for companies, potentially leading to pressure on stocks and higher borrowing costs across the economy. Several analysts have warned that risks tied to Fed independence could remain a dominant market theme throughout 2026. Adding to the uncertainty is the arrival of the final inflation reading for 2025, which markets see as a hinge point for the entire 2026 policy outlook. After months of noisy data distorted by a federal government shutdown, investors are looking to the last consumer price index report to determine whether inflation is truly cooling or merely pausing. The shutdown disrupted the Bureau of Labor Statistics normal data collection process, forcing workarounds that produced volatile and sometimes puzzling results. One report even showed an unexpected decline in CPI, driven largely by falling goods prices such as gasoline, while services inflation remained firmer. The December 2025 CPI is widely viewed as the best chance to cut through this fog. If it shows broad based easing in key areas like shelter, medical services, and transportation, it would support the view that earlier odd readings were statistical noise and give the Fed room to consider rate cuts. If not, markets may brace for renewed inflation pressure just as political risks around the Fed intensify. For now, investors are navigating a landscape where geopolitics, policy credibility, and data reliability are all in question, making caution the dominant mood as the year moves forward. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Markets Watch Fed Leadership Drama While Rate Cut Expectations Stay on Hold Late Friday, the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas linked to testimony given by Chair Jerome Powell to the Senate Banking Committee last June regarding a multi year renovation of historic Fed office buildings. This development added to uncertainty around the future leadership and independence of the central bank, an issue already in focus as President Trump moves closer to naming the next Fed chair. Chair Powell responded publicly over the weekend, saying he has deep respect for the rule of law and accountability, and stressed that no one is above the law. He said the Fed made every effort through testimony and public disclosures to keep Congress informed about the renovation project, and argued that the threat of criminal charges is not really about the buildings or congressional oversight. Powell said the real issue is whether the Federal Reserve will be able to continue setting interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions rather than political pressure or intimidation. He added that he has served under four administrations from both parties, has always acted without political fear or favor, and intends to continue carrying out the mandate of price stability and maximum employment with integrity and a commitment to serving the American people. From a policy perspective, rate expectations remain clearly tilted toward patience. As of January 11, 2026, markets are assigning only a 4.4% chance of a rate cut at the next meeting. The first full quarter point cut is not priced in until the June 17 FOMC meeting, with another cut mostly expected by the October 28 meeting and fully priced in by December 9. This outlook continues to support the US dollar by keeping US yields relatively attractive compared with those in other major economies. Inflation expectations have changed little. Economists expect core consumer price inflation to rise 2.7% year on year in December, slightly above the 2.6% pace seen in November, which was the lowest since early 2021. On a monthly basis, both headline and core prices are expected to increase 0.3%. Analysts have noted that the November figures were affected by problems collecting prices in October, particularly for rent, which likely pushed inflation lower than underlying trends. The December report due Tuesday could reverse some of that distortion, but is still viewed as consistent with gradually easing price pressures. For gold, political and institutional uncertainty has provided underlying support. The investigation involving the Fed chair, combined with comments from Trump that the US is reviewing military options on Iran, has kept safe haven demand alive. At the same time, firm US yields and a resilient dollar have limited upside, leaving gold supported but largely range bound. With no meaningful monetary policy affecting data scheduled in today’s economic calendar, market focus is likely to remain firmly on the political developments surrounding the Federal Reserve, evolving expectations for US interest rates, and the broader risk backdrop shaped by geopolitical tension. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions

US and Canadian Jobs Diverge as USDCAD Faces Key Resistance The US and Canadian labor market reports released today are central to short term positioning, as both economies show clear signs of cooling but at different speeds. Recent data from the United States suggests a labor market that is losing momentum, while Canada is showing a late year rebound after a softer middle of the year. In the United States, the most recent confirmed figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics cover November and show that nonfarm payrolls increased by 64K. This was a relatively small gain and followed several months of slower hiring. According to the BLS, overall employment has shown little net change since April, reinforcing the view that job growth has largely stalled. At the same time, the unemployment rate stood at 4.6 %, which was little changed from earlier in the autumn and among the highest readings in recent years. This November report was released in mid December due to processing delays linked to the 2025 federal government shutdown and remains the last fully official snapshot of the US labor market ahead of today’s update. Today’s December employment report from the US is expected to provide the next key signal for markets. Forecasts including estimates referenced by the Chicago Federal Reserve, suggest the unemployment rate may remain near 4.6 % or edge slightly lower toward 4.5 %. While the payroll figure has not yet been released, the pattern of recent months points toward another relatively small increase rather than a sharp rebound. For forex markets, this reinforces expectations that the US labor market is no longer a strong source of upside surprise for the dollar and that future policy decisions will depend more on inflation than on employment strength. Canada presents a different but equally important story. The most recent Labour Force Survey from Statistics Canada, covering November, showed that employment increased by about 54K and that the unemployment rate fell to 6.5 %. This marked three consecutive months of job gains and the lowest unemployment reading since earlier in 2024. Total employment stood at approximately 21M, reflecting a steady improvement after a difficult first half of the year. Statistics Canada is scheduled to release the December labor force data today, which will give markets the first official look at how employment ended the year. Given the recent run of job gains and the decline in unemployment through late autumn, expect employment to be broadly stable or slightly higher, with the unemployment rate likely remaining in the mid six percent range rather than moving sharply in either direction. The divergence between the US and Canadian labor markets would normally suggest downward pressure on USDCAD, as the Canadian labor market has shown more resilience while US growth is slowing. However, recent geopolitical events are currently exerting a stronger influence than fundamentals. Tensions regarding Venezuela, where the United States carried out a military operation resulting in the removal of President Maduro, have pushed the US dollar higher as a safe-haven currency. Markets are pricing in heightened risk amid global energy uncertainty and concerns over regional stability. Reports indicate ongoing debate in the US Senate over war powers and widespread international criticism, which continues to reinforce demand for the US dollar. This dynamic is reflected in USDCAD, which is approaching near one-month highs. Technical analysis suggests that resistance around 1.38900 is key; a decisive break above this level could open the path to higher prices and confirm continued US dollar strength against the Canadian dollar. Traders should watch closely as the interplay of economic data and geopolitical developments will likely dictate near-term movements, and the current setup highlights how safe-haven flows can temporarily outweigh traditional labor market signals. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions

Muted Inflation in Switzerland and Softer US Jobs Data Shape FX Sentiment Global markets are starting the day focused on two key economic updates from Switzerland and the United States, both offering clues on where inflation and employment trends are heading as the new year unfolds. In Switzerland, attention is on the latest inflation data. Over the past twelve months, Swiss inflation has stayed extremely low, hovering close to zero for most of the year. Several months saw prices barely rising at all, while a few even dipped slightly. This reflects a combination of weak domestic demand, stable energy prices, and a strong Swiss franc that keeps import costs under control. Compared with other developed economies, Switzerland has faced very little price pressure, and inflation has remained well within the Swiss National Bank’s comfort zone. Looking at recent trends, inflation peaked modestly early last year before steadily cooling. By the final months of the year, consumer prices were either flat or rising by only a small fraction compared with the same period a year earlier. Because of this backdrop, expectations for today’s inflation release remain muted. Most analysts believe inflation will show only a slight increase, likely close to zero or just above it. A reading around 0.1% would be enough to confirm that price pressures remain weak, without changing the broader outlook. For the Swiss franc, this kind of data usually limits upside potential since it supports the view that interest rates will stay low for longer. Meanwhile in the United States, markets are watching weekly unemployment claims for signs of how the labor market is holding up. Over the past year, jobless claims have stayed relatively low by historical standards, generally moving within a narrow range that signals stability rather than stress. While there have been occasional spikes, these were short lived and often linked to seasonal factors rather than a sudden rise in layoffs. That said, the trend over recent months suggests the labor market is slowly cooling. Claims are no longer pushing consistently toward fresh lows, and hiring activity has eased compared with earlier periods. This fits with other labor indicators showing that employers are becoming more cautious as economic growth slows and borrowing costs remain high. For today’s release, expectations center on a modest increase compared with the most recent reading, likely keeping claims slightly above recent lows but still well below levels associated with a weakening jobs market. A figure around the low 200,000 range would e but held back by signs that growth and employment momentum are slowing. As markets digest these releases, attention will remain on whether low inflation in Europe and a softening US labor market push central banks toward a more patient stance. Until clearer signals emerge, currency moves are likely to remain measured, driven more by relative expectations than by dramatic surprises. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions

Global Markets Watch Cooling Inflation and Slower Growth Global markets today are focused on how inflation and business activity are evolving across major economies, with new data from Australia, Canada, the United States, and Europe offering a clearer picture of where growth and price pressures stand as the year turns. In Australia, the latest Consumer Price Index showed that inflation continues to cool, although it remains above the comfort zone of policymakers. Prices for everyday goods and services were 3.4% higher over the year to November 2025 compared with the same period last year. This was lower than the 3.8% increase seen in October, which signals that inflation is easing rather than accelerating. The slowdown was helped by softer price pressures across several categories, though housing costs, food and non alcoholic drinks, and transport remained the biggest contributors to higher prices over the past year. On a monthly basis, prices were flat in November in the original data, while seasonally adjusted figures showed a small increase. The trimmed mean measure, which strips out extreme price movements to give a clearer view of underlying inflation, also eased to 3.2%, down from October. This suggests that core inflation pressures are gradually cooling. Importantly, this release also marks the shift to a full monthly CPI in Australia, giving markets and households a more timely view of how prices are changing as conditions evolve. In Canada, attention is on business activity rather than prices, with the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index highlighting a noticeable softening toward the end of 2025. Over the past six months, the trend has shifted meaningfully. During late spring and early summer, the index generally stayed above 50, reflecting steady demand, resilient purchasing activity, and relatively solid output. July and August continued to show expansion, and September delivered a sharp spike to a multi month high, suggesting a brief surge in momentum. That strength faded in October, and by November 2025 the index fell to 48.4, its first contraction reading since May. The weakness was broad, with employment slipping below the expansion line and inventories flattening, even though price pressures remained elevated. Going into today’s release, expectations lean toward a modest improvement but not a full rebound. Market forecasts point to a reading just under 50, around 49.5, which would suggest that conditions are stabilizing but not yet improving in a meaningful way. In the United States, the focus is on the ISM Services PMI, which gives insight into the largest part of the American economy. Over the last half year, the services sector has mostly remained in expansion, though momentum has been uneven. In May 2025, the index dipped just below 50, signaling a brief stall as new orders and inventories softened. That weakness proved temporary, as the index rebounded through the summer. August and September readings moved into the low to mid 50s, marking the strongest pace of growth in several months. Business activity and new orders improved, although employment often lagged behind and at times hovered near contraction. In October and November, the services sector continued to expand, with November posting a reading of 52.6, the strongest in nine months. Price pressures also eased, suggesting some relief on the inflation front. More recent data points show a gradual loss of momentum, with readings around 54.8 in October, 54.1 in November, and about 52.5 in December. This suggests that services activity remains healthy but is no longer accelerating. For today’s release, expectations are for continued expansion at a slower pace, likely in the low 50s range around 52.0 to 53.0. Such an outcome would confirm that growth is still positive but more measured, reflecting cautious client spending, softer demand growth, and ongoing labor market adjustments. In Europe, inflation remains close to the European Central Bank’s target, reinforcing the sense that price pressures are largely under control for now. Over the past six months, euro area inflation has hovered near 2%. In May and June 2025, flash estimates showed inflation easing toward the 2.0% to 2.2% range, helped mainly by lower energy prices, while services inflation stayed firmer. Through the summer and into early autumn, core inflation excluding energy and food held steady around 2.3% to 2.4%, pointing to persistent but manageable underlying pressures. By September and October, headline inflation was still near 2.2%, broadly matching expectations and sitting just above the ECB’s target. November continued this pattern, with a flash estimate around 2.1% to 2.2%. For today’s flash estimate, markets expect little change, with headline inflation likely to stay within the same narrow range. Core inflation is also expected to remain near 2.4%. Energy prices are no longer falling as sharply as before, but there has been no strong surge in services or goods prices either. If large economies such as Germany continue to show easing trends, the headline figure could land toward the lower end of expectations. A modest upside surprise remains possible if services or energy costs pick up, but any move is likely to be limited. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions

Global PMIs Signal Steady Private Sector Growth While Geopolitics Take Center Stage Today’s PMI readings give a snapshot of how private sector activity is shaping up across major economies as 2026 begins. In the United Kingdom the composite PMI for December came in at 52.1, up from 51.2 in November, showing that overall private sector activity expanded at a steady pace. Growth was driven by both services and manufacturing, with businesses reporting higher new orders and output, and confidence improving as the year ended, even as firms continued to navigate cost pressures and cautious hiring. Over the past twelve months the UK composite PMI has generally stayed above the neutral fifty mark, reflecting steady expansion in the private sector despite some fluctuations during periods of uncertainty. In the United States the ISM manufacturing PMI released yesterday showed that factory activity continued to contract at the end of 2025, with a reading of 47.9%, down from 48.2% in November and marking the lowest manufacturing reading of the year. A PMI below 50 signals contraction, and this was the tenth consecutive month of declining manufacturing activity, with new orders and inventories remaining weak even as production and supplier deliveries showed modest expansion. Only a small number of manufacturing industries reported growth, while the broader U.S. economy continued expanding. Meanwhile, today’s S&P Global US composite PMI is expected at 52.9, reflecting expansion across the overall private sector, led by services and supported by stabilizing manufacturing. In the eurozone the flash composite PMI for December showed overall private sector expansion at 51.9, slightly down from 52.8 in November. Services continued to grow, with today’s eurozone services PMI forecast at 52.6, indicating continued expansion and signaling that services remain the main driver of growth across the region. Manufacturing remained weaker with contracting output and new orders in key economies such as Germany and Italy. Looking back, the final eurozone services PMI in November was 52.6, showing that services have been consistently supporting overall private sector expansion throughout the past year despite ongoing manufacturing challenges. It is important to note that the PMI data released today are expected numbers, and while they give a snapshot of private sector trends, they are not the main drivers of market moves at the moment. Current market focus is heavily on recent developments in Venezuela following a US operation that resulted in the capture of Nicolás Maduro and his wife on criminal charges, and on statements from U.S. and Venezuelan officials about the next steps. These geopolitical events are drawing international attention and are likely to have a stronger impact on safe-haven assets and commodity currencies than today’s expected PMI releases. Real actionable economic data that could meaningfully move markets will start coming in from tomorrow, so traders are advised to exercise caution and not overreact to today’s expected PMI releases. Taken together, these readings suggest that private sector activity at the start of 2026 remains broadly positive in the UK, the US, and the eurozone, largely driven by services and consumer demand, while manufacturing faces ongoing headwinds. However, for today, geopolitical developments in Venezuela outweigh the expected PMI data in terms of market impact, and caution is warranted for traders and investors. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions

Global PMI Data Highlight Gradual Expansion Across Key Economies Today is all about the Purchasing Manager’s Index. In the US, the most recent flash PMI data for December 2025 showed that business activity growth slowed, with the composite PMI around 53.0, the weakest pace in six months. This was driven by slower expansion in both manufacturing and services activity, and new orders for goods fell for the first time in about a year. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI measured 51.8 for December, down from the prior month’s figure and slightly below the consensus forecast, indicating slower factory activity even though the sector remained in modest expansion territory. Earlier in 2025 the US manufacturing PMI had been higher with readings above 52 in mid‑year before slipping in the latter part of the year, while service sector PMI readings also showed a gradual moderation from the stronger growth seen earlier in the year. On balance this reflects an economy that is still growing but losing some momentum as demand pressures soften and input costs remain a concern for companies. For today’s release markets will be looking to see whether this trend continues, with expectations that PMI readings will remain close to these recent levels rather than swinging sharply higher or lower. Across Europe recent PMI data painted a picture of modest expansion that has been weaker than in the United States. According to recent PMI surveys, business activity in the euro area has been slow and sluggish, dragged down by weakness in Germany’s manufacturing sector even as France and other economies showed some improvement. Household spending remained cautious, and government debt constraints limited fiscal support for growth. Europe’s PMI readings have hovered near the threshold of expansion with some months showing slower momentum in business activity and others indicating only slight improvements. Investors will be watching to see if business activity remains stable or shows signs of further slowing, particularly given the uneven growth patterns seen across the euro area throughout recent months. In the United Kingdom the latest PMI data available before 2025 year end suggested that business activity had seen some slight recovery but remained fragile. The UK PMI rose slightly above 50 in December 2025, just above the level that separates expansion from contraction, reflecting only modest growth in business conditions. This came against a backdrop of weakening labor market conditions and slowing economic output that have prompted the Bank of England to cut interest rates in response to lower inflation and slower growth. Earlier in 2025, the UK PMI had been volatile with readings that dipped below fifty on several occasions, signaling contraction, before rising again in later months. The market will assess whether this modest growth trend has been sustained into the new year or if the more tentative conditions in the UK economy have continued to weigh on business activity. Turning to Canada, PMI readings for the Canadian economy have shown a pattern of tepid expansion in 2025 with occasional soft points. The Canadian manufacturing PMI and services PMI surveys indicated growth around the threshold of expansion throughout much of the year, but with readings often closer to 50 than above 50, reflecting slow output growth and mixed business sentiment. Demand conditions have been uneven with resource and export sectors providing some support while domestic demand and consumer activity have shown signs of slowing. Recent PMI reports suggested that Canadian business activity continued at a modest pace as the economy grappled with higher borrowing costs and softer global demand. For the upcoming release Canadians and global investors alike will be interested to see if the Canadian PMI remains stable or shows a further slowdown given the challenges that have emerged over recent months. It is also important to recognize that because the year has just started, many traders and financial institutions will still be in holiday mode with lower participation and reduced liquidity. Volatility will most likely return next week marking the official start of 2026 trading. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions

As 2026 begins, currency markets are positioned at a crossroads, reflecting the aftermath of a turbulent 2025. Last year saw central banks around the world respond to slowing growth, easing inflation, and volatile geopolitical conditions. Major forex currencies all experienced divergent paths, influenced by domestic economic fundamentals, policy decisions, and investor sentiment. Looking ahead, these same forces will continue to drive currency trends throughout 2026, but the year is expected to be shaped more by relative strength and weakness among currencies rather than dramatic swings. United States Dollar The US dollar entered 2026 on the back foot. In 2025, the greenback suffered one of its weakest annual performances in decades, with broad dollar indexes declining roughly 9 %. This was largely due to a shift in Federal Reserve policy. After years of elevated interest rates that supported the dollar, the Fed began easing in the second half of 2025, cutting the target federal funds rate to 3.50 % to 3.75 % as inflation cooled and signs of softening labor markets appeared. This removed one of the dollar’s key supports, its yield advantage, prompting investors to look elsewhere for returns. At the same time, uncertainty around US trade policy and fiscal debates created periods of volatility, although occasional safe-haven demand during market stress helped cushion losses. Against this backdrop, the euro appreciated roughly 14 % versus the dollar, and other major currencies, including commodity-linked currencies, gained ground. For 2026, the dollar will continue to be driven by US monetary policy, domestic economic performance, and global risk sentiment. Most forecasts suggest the Federal Reserve may continue easing if growth slows further or if inflation approaches target levels, potentially bringing rates toward 3 %. If this occurs, the dollar could weaken gradually against the euro, yen, and other major currencies as yield differentials narrow. However, the dollar could see short-term spikes during periods of global uncertainty, such as geopolitical crises, financial market stress, or sharp declines in risk assets, due to its status as a safe-haven currency. The biggest risk for the dollar in 2026 is a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the US economy, which could prompt additional easing and pressure the currency. Conversely, the source of strength remains safe-haven demand, particularly if geopolitical tensions flare or markets face volatility in other regions. Overall, the dollar is likely to trade in a more range-bound environment, with temporary rebounds but limited sustained gains unless economic data surprises positively. Euro The euro experienced a year of measured stability in 2025, balancing economic resilience against ongoing global uncertainty. The European Central Bank maintained interest rates around 2 %, reflecting confidence that inflation was nearing target and that the eurozone was navigating a soft landing. Growth projections for 2025 were revised to about 1.4 %, and inflation gradually eased toward 1.9 %. Exports benefited from competitive pricing, and domestic demand remained supported by firm labor markets. Bulgaria’s entry into the eurozone in January 2026, while largely symbolic, highlighted the euro’s continued political significance. Looking forward, the euro will be shaped by ECB policy, eurozone growth, inflation trends, and external pressures. If the ECB maintains steady rates while other central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, continue easing, the euro could strengthen further against the dollar, as investors seek higher yields and stability. The biggest risk to the euro is renewed geopolitical instability or energy market shocks that strain member economies. Conversely, the source of strength is steady domestic economic growth, controlled inflation, and policy stability. The forecast for EUR to USD could range between 1.20 and 1.24 by year-end, with modest upward potential if relative yields and economic fundamentals remain supportive. The euro’s performance versus the pound and yen will also be influenced by cross-currency flows, as investors respond to changes in relative interest rates and risk sentiment. British Pound The British pound had a mixed performance in 2025. Sterling appreciated roughly 8 % against the dollar at times, driven by a weaker dollar and increased investor interest in UK assets, including equities. The FTSE 100 surpassed the 10,000-point mark for the first time in years, supported by strong performances in banking and materials, though domestic economic growth remained modest. Inflation slowed toward the Bank of England’s 2 % target, while the base rate declined to 3.75 %, reflecting the start of an easing cycle. Mortgage rates began to ease, improving affordability in a housing market that had been cooling, and the labor market showed signs of softening. In 2026, the pound’s path will depend on monetary policy, economic growth, labor market dynamics, and global investor sentiment. The biggest risk is economic stagnation combined with further-than-expected rate cuts, which could weaken the pound against both the US dollar and euro. Conversely, measured easing while maintaining fiscal credibility and stable global growth could support sterling, creating a modestly stronger currency by year-end. GBP to USD could see short-term volatility but remain range-bound, while GBP to EUR will be sensitive to ECB actions and trade flows. Overall, the pound is likely to respond to domestic economic data and international developments, with limited scope for dramatic shifts. Japanese Yen The Japanese yen had a pivotal year in 2025, as the Bank of Japan began a rare period of monetary normalization, raising rates to 0.75 %, the highest level in 30 years, after decades of near-zero and negative rates. Despite the rate increase, USD to JPY remained elevated around the upper 150s per dollar due to uncertainty about further BOJ actions and rising long-term bond yields. Japan’s equity markets flourished, and GDP growth was modest, with expectations of around 0.7 % for fiscal 2026. Looking ahead, the yen will be influenced by BOJ policy, yield differentials, and global risk sentiment. If the BOJ continues gradual tightening and US-Japan yield gaps narrow, the yen could appreciate moderately, potentially trading in the mid-140s per dollar by year-end. The biggest risk is BOJ caution delaying further rate increases, leaving the yen vulnerable to depreciation. The source of strength will be sustained policy normalization and interest rate convergence with other major economies. Capital flows, speculative positioning, and risk sentiment will amplify movements, making the yen sensitive to global developments. Australian Dollar The Australian dollar had a strong year in 2025, climbing roughly 7.7 % against the dollar and trading near 0.6693 at the start of 2026. This performance was underpinned by a combination of domestic resilience, favorable commodity prices, and global risk sentiment. Australia’s exports of iron ore, copper, gold, and critical minerals remained in demand, supporting the terms of trade and providing a natural buffer for the currency. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its cash rate to 3.60 % early in 2025 in response to easing inflation pressures and global uncertainties, but later held steady, signaling a more cautious approach and surprising markets with a hawkish tone given expectations of continued cuts in other countries. This helped the AUD regain some ground relative to the dollar, while global investors adjusted their portfolios toward higher-yielding currencies linked to commodities. Looking into 2026, several forces will influence the AUD. Monetary policy is central, as the RBA’s decision to hold rates provides a relative yield advantage compared with economies that may continue cutting rates, such as the US or New Zealand. This makes Australian assets attractive to foreign capital flows, potentially supporting the currency. Global commodity demand, especially from China and other Asian economies, will also be crucial; any slowdown in infrastructure investment or industrial production in these regions could weigh on the AUD. Another factor is risk sentiment: as a commodity and risk-sensitive currency, the AUD tends to appreciate when investors are confident in global growth and seek exposure to higher-yielding assets, while periods of risk aversion push capital back toward safe-haven currencies like the dollar or Swiss franc. The biggest risk for the AUD in 2026 is a combination of weaker global growth and a slowdown in China’s property or industrial sectors, which would reduce demand for Australia’s key exports and limit the currency’s upside. Conversely, the source of strength includes higher relative rates, solid commodity demand, and sustained investor confidence in Australia’s economic stability. AUD to USD could move above 0.70 by the end of 2026 if these factors align. Even domestic economic performance could add support: moderate GDP growth and improving labor market conditions would encourage domestic confidence, reinforcing foreign demand for AUD assets. Overall, 2026 could see the AUD trading with moderate gains versus the dollar, with periods of volatility driven by commodity cycles, global growth expectations, and shifts in risk appetite. New Zealand Dollar In 2025 the New Zealand dollar reflected the interplay of domestic economic weakness and broader global trends. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its official cash rate to 2.25 %, the lowest since mid‑2022, in response to moderate inflation and slowing economic activity. Headline inflation was around 3 % in the September quarter, but underlying price pressures remained contained, giving the RBNZ room to ease. The central bank indicated that the easing cycle was largely over, signaling a likely hold through 2026 unless economic conditions worsened or inflation diverged from expectations. The NZD saw modest gains against the dollar when markets priced in reduced speculation about further cuts. Global commodity markets, risk appetite, and demand for export services also influenced the currency’s performance, given New Zealand’s small, open economy. In 2026, the NZD will continue to respond to monetary policy, global risk sentiment, and trade developments. The RBNZ is likely to maintain rates near 2.25 % for much of the year, unless inflation falls faster than expected or domestic activity weakens further. This relative policy stance will determine how attractive New Zealand assets are to global investors compared with alternatives in the US, Australia, and other economies. Commodity prices for dairy, meat, and other exports will be critical; strong demand from Asia, particularly China, could boost trade income and support the currency, while weaker demand could pressure the NZD. Risk sentiment will also play a large role, as the Kiwi is sensitive to shifts toward safe-haven assets, particularly the US dollar or Japanese yen. The biggest risk for the NZD is that global growth slows significantly, prompting risk-off flows that reduce demand for small, commodity-linked currencies, or that domestic inflation overshoots and forces unexpected monetary easing. Conversely, the source of strength is steady RBNZ policy, contained inflation, and favorable global growth conditions that sustain demand for New Zealand exports. NZD to USD could rise toward 0.64 by year-end if the Fed cuts rates and global conditions favor risk assets. Domestic developments, including wage growth and housing market trends, could also influence the currency. Overall, 2026 is likely to see the NZD trading gradually stronger relative to mid-2025 levels, but sensitive to global commodity cycles, monetary policy expectations, and risk sentiment. Swiss Franc The Swiss franc continued to be shaped by low domestic inflation, cautious monetary policy, and its reputation as a safe-haven currency in 2025. The Swiss National Bank cut its policy rate to 0.25 % early in the year as inflation remained extremely low, around 0.3 % in February, and subsequently reduced it to 0 % later in 2025. The SNB indicated that rates would likely stay unchanged through 2026, reflecting a neutral stance to support the economy while maintaining price stability. Despite low rates, the franc appreciated nearly 15 % against the U.S. dollar, as investors sought security amid geopolitical uncertainty, volatile trade conditions, and uneven global growth. The SNB reduced foreign currency purchases toward the end of 2025 after earlier interventions, highlighting ongoing concerns about currency strength potentially affecting exports. Domestic growth was moderate, with GDP expanding around 1.2 %, while inflation forecasts for 2026 suggest modest increases toward 0.5 %. In 2026, the franc will remain highly sensitive to global economic uncertainty and risk appetite. The SNB’s commitment to steady rates suggests that yield-driven flows will not be a major support for the currency, but safe-haven demand will remain a central factor. Periods of market stress, geopolitical conflict, or global financial volatility could strengthen the franc sharply against both major and emerging market currencies. The biggest risk for the CHF is a resumption of strong global growth that reduces safe-haven demand, pushing the currency lower against other major pairs. Conversely, the source of strength is persistent uncertainty in global markets, low domestic inflation, and Switzerland’s reputation as a stable financial center. Forecasts indicate the EUR to CHF rate will likely remain stable given Switzerland’s close economic ties to the eurozone, but USD to CHF could see intermittent strength if risk aversion spikes. Overall, the franc is expected to remain one of the most resilient currencies in 2026, with its value determined more by global sentiment than domestic policy. Canadian Dollar The Canadian dollar had a mixed but resilient year in 2025, influenced by domestic policy, oil prices, and international developments. The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate in response to slowing growth and trade uncertainty, ultimately bringing the policy rate to the lower end of recent ranges. Inflation remained close to the target of 2 %, while oil prices, Canada’s primary export, fluctuated but generally provided support for the currency. The loonie’s performance was also influenced by the Federal Reserve’s actions, as differing rate decisions affected yield spreads and investor flows. Manufacturing and domestic demand remained weak, limiting substantial gains, though periods of relative strength were observed when oil prices stabilized or rates remained favorable relative to U.S. policy. Looking ahead to 2026, the CAD will be shaped by interest rate differentials, commodity prices, and risk sentiment. If the Bank of Canada holds rates steady while the Federal Reserve eases more aggressively, the loonie could strengthen modestly as yield differentials narrow. Oil and energy prices will continue to be key drivers, as higher commodity prices support exports and trade balances, while declines would weigh on the currency. Global risk sentiment will also influence CAD flows: in risk-on environments, investors may favor higher-yielding and commodity-linked assets, supporting the loonie, whereas risk-off periods could push capital toward the U.S. dollar or Swiss franc. The biggest risk for the CAD in 2026 is a sharp drop in oil prices combined with slower global growth, particularly in major trading partners like the United States and China. Conversely, the source of strength lies in stable domestic policy, favorable commodity trends, and the loonie’s historical resilience in times of relative economic calm. USD to CAD could move lower if these factors align, while significant volatility remains possible around geopolitical or market stress events. Overall, the Canadian dollar is expected to remain moderately range-bound, responding to a combination of domestic economic signals, commodity performance, and external global conditions. Overall Outlook 2026 is likely to be a year of measured adjustments rather than dramatic swings in global currencies. Monetary policy, interest rate differentials, inflation, risk sentiment, and geopolitical developments will dominate. The dollar may weaken gradually but retain safe-haven appeal; the euro could strengthen modestly on policy stability; the pound is likely to be range-bound; the yen may appreciate moderately with BOJ normalization; commodity-linked currencies like the AUD and NZD could rise with favorable global demand; the Swiss franc will remain a safe-haven; and the Canadian dollar will track oil prices and yield spreads. Investors should expect short-term volatility and moderate swings rather than sustained directional trends, with currency performance driven by both domestic fundamentals and global dynamics. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions

US Labor and Housing Data Remain Mixed While Spain Inflation Stabilizes According to preliminary ADP data based on a four‑week moving average, for the period ending near the end of November 2025 private employers added an average of about 16,250 jobs per week, up from very low or negative figures in prior weeks, reflecting an uptick in hiring in the second half of November. Looking at broader monthly figures, the ADP National Employment Report showed that private sector employment increased by 42K jobs in October 2025 compared with the prior month, and annual pay growth was up about 4.5 % on a year‑over‑year basis. On the other hand, data compiled from another measure show that the monthly ADP employment change for November was negative at roughly -31K, a swing from positive job additions earlier in the year and well below the positive gains reported in prior months such as October when employment rose. Over the last year private employment has seen repeated fluctuations with both gains and losses reported, indicating that hiring conditions have been uneven. For today’s release the updated weekly ADP figures may show continued modest hiring or small declines in some weeks, consistent with the recent pattern of volatility in private payrolls. Turning to the home price indicators, the US Home Price Index or HPI m/m and the S&P/Case‑Shiller Composite‑20 HPI y/y tell us about changes in residential property values. The S&P/Case‑Shiller index measures house price trends across major metropolitan areas. The most recent year‑over‑year data for October 2025 show that the S&P/Case‑Shiller Composite‑20 Home Price Index rose by about 1.4 % compared with the same period a year earlier, unchanged from the prior reading, and slower than the higher annual gains seen earlier in 2025 when year‑over‑year increases were nearer 2 % and above in mid‑year. For the monthly data the Case‑Shiller Composite home price index level was reported around an index value of 337.71 for September 2025, up slightly compared with the prior month, and up about 1.37 % compared with a year earlier, pointing to modest price growth. These trends reflect a housing market that has seen slower price increases compared with previous years, as higher mortgage costs and affordability challenges have constrained buyer demand. For the upcoming release we will see if recent modest price growth continues for the latest month, with expectations that prices may rise slightly on a monthly basis and that the year‑over‑year increase may remain around levels similar to the most recent figures rather than showing a sharp acceleration. In Europe, Spanish Flash CPI y/y gives an early signal on inflation in Spain and often serves as a lead indicator for broader eurozone inflation trends. The latest flash estimate for Spanish inflation showed that consumer prices rose by about 3.0 % in November 2025 compared with the same month a year earlier, slightly lower than the prior year’s 3.1 % reading. This moderate inflation rate reflects slower price pressures than seen in earlier months but still suggests that inflation remains above the European Central Bank’s general target of price stability around 2%. The flash estimate for Spain also showed that underlying inflation excluding volatile energy and food prices was around 2.6 % on a year‑over‑year basis, indicating that core price pressures have not eased dramatically. For the next flash release, markets expect Spain’s headline inflation to remain near 3.0 %, consistent with the recent trend of stable but moderate price increases. Altogether these data releases form part of a broader picture of economic conditions at the end of 2025. As the year closes many traders and financial institutions will be in holiday mode with lower participation and reduced liquidity, so any market reaction to these releases may be limited; caution is advisable for the thinner trading conditions around year‑end. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions

US Goods Trade Deficit and Pending Home Sales Show Stability Over the last 12 months the goods trade balance has tended to show a persistent deficit as imports have generally exceeded exports, reflecting stronger domestic demand for foreign‑made products and the broader global patterns of consumption. In recent months, official figures for September showed that the overall trade deficit including goods and services narrowed to about -$85.5, the lowest level in several months as exports grew slightly more than imports; this included a smaller deficit in goods relative to the prior month, even though the overall gap remained large. Earlier in the year there were periods when the goods deficit widened sharply, including a much larger deficit in the spring that at one point exceeded -$77B as imports surged ahead of new tariffs and export growth was modest. For October, expect the goods trade balance to remain in deficit again, likely reflecting continued strong appetite for imported goods alongside moderate export growth. The precise figure will depend on factors such as changes in global demand, tariff policies, and supply chain dynamics, but the trend over the last year suggests the deficit will persist at a level similar to recent months rather than swinging dramatically toward surplus. The Pending Home Sales report also comes today. Over the past year pending home sales have been volatile with swings both up and down as mortgage rates, affordability and consumer confidence have shifted. In early 2025 contract signings rose sharply at one point in response to lower mortgage rates, but they also fell to very weak levels in the winter when high rates and higher prices discouraged buyers. More recently October data showed a solid rebound with pending home sales rising by 1.9 % compared with the prior month, a larger increase than expected and indicating renewed activity in several regions of the country. This suggests that some buyers were motivated by improving affordability and lower mortgage rates, even though conditions remain challenging for many. The market consensus today is that the pace of contracts signed may remain positive but moderate, close to the levels seen in October rather than showing a sharp acceleration. If this forecast is confirmed it will be interpreted as housing market conditions holding steady with some continued buyer interest but not a sudden surge in activity. Both of these data points have implications for how economists and policymakers view the US economy at the end of 2025. A persistent goods trade deficit broadly signals that the US continues to import more than it exports, with implications for production and domestic demand, while stable pending home sales could suggest that the housing sector is neither weakening abruptly nor strengthening strongly. However, as the year‑end approaches many traders and financial institutions will be in holiday mode, with lower participation and reduced liquidity in markets. This environment means price reactions to economic releases are often subdued, and any movements in exchange rates, bonds or equities around next week’s data may be limited; market participants tend to exercise caution at this time of year and may defer major trading decisions until after the New Year. With 2025 nearly closed there is little incentive for heavy repositioning, and that holiday context should be kept in mind when interpreting both the goods trade balance and Pending Home Sales figures. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions

US Unemployment Claims Expected to Stay Steady as Markets Enter Holiday Mode The weekly report on US unemployment claims that is one of the earliest signals we get about the health of the labor market. Over the past 12 months, jobless claims have shown a pattern of moderate ups and downs as the US labor market has adjusted to slower economic growth and seasonal effects around holidays. Earlier in the year initial claims were often near historically low levels suggesting strong labor market conditions, but as the year progressed there were periods when claims climbed, reflecting layoffs or seasonal volatility. For example, in early December the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits decreased to about 224K from the prior week, reversing a larger increase and coming in just below forecasts. This modest decline suggested that, despite some volatility, labor market conditions had remained broadly stable as the year moved toward its end. At the same time, continuing claims, which count people still receiving benefits, have been elevated around 1.897M, indicating that more workers are receiving longer term unemployment support even as first-time claims fluctuate. The broader context of labor market indicators shows that the unemployment rate edged higher late in the year, reaching about 4.6%, the highest in several years, while job growth overall slowed compared with earlier periods. These elements together suggest a labor market that is not weakening sharply, but is certainly calmer and less dynamic than in past years. Expect the unemployment claims to remain near recent levels rather than jump dramatically. Forecasts are clustered around figures slightly above or below the latest reported levels, suggesting that initial claims may stay in the low to mid 200K rather than swinging suddenly higher or lower. If the data come in close to the forecast, it would support the narrative that layoffs are not accelerating sharply and that workers continue to find new jobs relatively quickly even as some firms adjust staffing amid slower economic growth. Because this weekly claim report is often influenced by seasonal adjustments and the timing of holidays, the movements week to week do not always reflect underlying shifts in labor demand; economists often look at the four-week average to smooth out those short-term swings. That four-week average has been creeping modestly higher through late 2025, showing some softening at the margin but not a rapid deterioration. As traders and banks prepare for this release there is an added layer of context because the year is coming to a close. Many market participants will be in a holiday mode with lower trading volumes and less reaction to data that would normally move markets more strongly. With 2025 nearly over and liquidity thinner in financial markets, any movement in the unemployment claims data is likely to be muted; market participants tend to exercise caution this time of year and may wait for the new year before adjusting major positions or making forecasts based on labor market developments. Because unemployment claims are an early weekly indicator, their impact is often immediate but short-lived; this year that effect will likely be even smaller given the year-end environment. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

North American Economic Data Today Points to Cautious Growth Canada’s monthly gross domestic product data today are closely watched because they give the clearest picture of how the economy is performing right now, rather than relying on earlier quarterly figures. Over the past 12 months, Canada’s monthly GDP has shown slow and uneven movement, with small gains followed by occasional declines. Earlier in 2025, growth was supported by services and government spending, but momentum weakened during the middle of the year as household demand softened and higher interest rates weighed on activity. In August, the economy contracted by 0.3%, highlighting this fragility. September then showed a modest rebound of 0.2%, offering some relief but not enough to signal a clear recovery. For today’s October release, most forecasts point to another contraction, with expectations centered around a decline of roughly 0.2% to 0.3% compared with September. This outlook reflects weaker manufacturing output, softer resource activity, and subdued consumer spending. If confirmed, the data would suggest that Canada entered the final quarter of the year on a weak footing, reinforcing concerns that growth remains fragile and that policy support may be needed if conditions fail to improve. In the United States, durable goods orders provide an important window into business investment and confidence. Over the last year, orders for long‑lasting manufactured goods showed moderate growth but with fluctuations month to month, reflecting periods of stronger investment in machinery, transportation equipment, and other durable products, followed by softer demand as global uncertainties and higher interest rates weighed on spending decisions. The most recent data for September indicated a 0.5% increase compared with August, showing that businesses were still willing to invest, albeit cautiously. For today’s release, the forecast points to a decline of 1.5% m/m, signaling weaker demand in the manufacturing sector. If this forecast materializes, it would suggest that businesses are scaling back investment as economic growth slows, reflecting concerns about softer consumer demand, rising borrowing costs, and uncertainty in global trade conditions. A decline in durable goods orders of this magnitude could reinforce the view that the US economy is slowing but not yet in recession, highlighting the selective caution in corporate spending rather than a broad collapse. US consumer confidence has also been subdued, with the Conference Board’s index falling to 88.7 in November, reflecting concerns about inflation, jobs, and overall economic conditions. Today’s December reading is projected to show a modest rebound to the low 90s. While this would indicate a slight improvement in household sentiment, consumers are likely to remain cautious in their spending, particularly on big-ticket items and discretionary goods. Combined with softer durable goods orders, the signals suggest that economic activity could continue to expand at a modest pace, with growth concentrated in resilient areas such as services and sectors less sensitive to interest rates, while investment and spending on durable goods may lag. Together, today’s data could reinforce the narrative that the US economy is moderating, with households and businesses adjusting carefully to current economic conditions rather than accelerating sharply. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions

Global Markets Watch Japan Rate Shift as UK and Canada Consumers Slow Spending Global markets are ending the year focused on two closely connected themes, central bank policy shifts and the health of consumer spending. Developments in Japan, the United Kingdom, and Canada highlight how policymakers and households are responding to higher prices, rising interest rates, and uneven economic growth. In Japan, attention is firmly on the Bank of Japan as it prepares to raise interest rates to their highest level in 30 years. The central bank is widely expected to lift its short term policy rate to 0.75%, marking another step in its gradual move away from years of ultra loose monetary policy. Inflation has stayed above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for 44 straight months, driven mainly by higher food costs and a weak yen. At the same time, wage growth has improved, supported by labor shortages and strong pay agreements, giving policymakers confidence that inflation is becoming more sustainable rather than temporary. A rate hike would reinforce Japan’s unique position among major economies. While the United States and parts of Europe are moving closer to easing or holding rates steady, Japan continues to tighten. This policy divergence has helped shape currency markets, where higher Japanese rates are expected to support the yen over time and limit further increases in import driven inflation. However, the timing is sensitive, as Japan’s economy remains fragile. Revised gross domestic product data showed that economic output contracted more than initially estimated in the third quarter, highlighting the risk that higher borrowing costs could weigh further on growth. Because markets have largely priced in the rate increase, the focus is shifting to the Bank of Japan’s guidance on what comes next. Investors will be listening closely for comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda on the pace of future hikes and on the so called neutral rate, which is the level of interest rates that neither stimulates nor slows the economy. The central bank has previously estimated this range at between 1% and 2.5%, but officials have acknowledged that the true level is difficult to pinpoint. Any direct remarks on the yen’s weakness could also influence market reactions, as authorities remain wary of excessive currency declines that raise household costs. While Japan looks toward tighter policy, the United Kingdom and Canada are offering insight into how consumers are coping with existing financial pressure through retail sales data. In the United Kingdom, retail sales over the past 12 months have been uneven. Volumes have generally grown only modestly on a year-on-year basis, reflecting cautious spending behavior as households deal with high living costs and lingering uncertainty about income and taxes. Monthly data have shown swings between gains and declines, suggesting that shoppers are timing purchases carefully and responding to promotions rather than spending freely. Over the year, categories such as household goods have provided some support, indicating that major purchases have not disappeared entirely, but overall momentum remains weak. Canada’s retail sales story has also been marked by volatility. Earlier in the year, sales were supported by strong demand for motor vehicles and other big-ticket items. More recently, however, data showed a pullback in overall sales, driven mainly by lower vehicle purchases and softer demand across several sectors. When volatile categories such as gasoline and motor vehicles are excluded, underlying sales have been relatively flat, pointing to stable but subdued consumer demand. Regional data suggest that most provinces experienced declines, although some areas recorded gains tied to specific sectors. Looking ahead, expectations for the latest retail sales releases in both the United Kingdom and Canada are modest. Analysts generally anticipate limited improvement, with consumers continuing to feel the effects of higher interest rates and past inflation. This cautious spending environment stands in contrast to Japan’s push toward policy normalization, underscoring how different economies are responding to similar global pressures. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions

ECB Holds Steady as Bank of England Moves Closer to Rate Cut Forex markets are trading cautiously as investors focus on central bank decisions in Europe and the United Kingdom, where policy paths are starting to diverge. While both regions are dealing with easing inflation and weak growth, their central banks are responding very differently, shaping moves in the euro and the pound. In the eurozone, the European Central Bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Recent economic data has not justified any immediate adjustment, and officials continue to signal that policy is in a good place. Inflation is close to the 2% target, business surveys have improved slightly, and financial conditions remain restrictive. As a result, the rate decision itself is unlikely to surprise markets. Instead, attention is on the growing differences inside the ECB. Some policymakers, including Schnabel, have openly said the next rate move is likely a hike, reflecting a more optimistic view on growth and inflation risks. Others remain cautious, pointing to weak investment, fragile consumption, and ongoing geopolitical risks. This debate is expected to be visible in the ECB’s updated staff projections, which may show slightly stronger near term growth and marginally higher inflation forecasts for 2026. Even so, the broader outlook suggests the ECB will remain on hold through 2026, with any rate hike more likely in 2027 than sooner. This steady stance has helped support the euro, as markets have largely removed expectations of further rate cuts. However, gains may stay limited unless the ECB delivers a clearly more hawkish message. In contrast, the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting. Markets are pricing a 25 basis point cut with high confidence, which would lower the base rate to 3.75%, the lowest level since early 2023. Expectations for a cut strengthened after UK inflation fell sharply to 3.2% in November from 3.6% in October, driven mainly by easing food and drink prices. Economic conditions in the UK have also weakened. Growth remains sluggish, unemployment has risen to around 5%, and wage growth is slowing. While inflation is still above the Bank’s 2% target, the downward trend has given policymakers room to support the economy. The government’s recent budget measures, including lower energy costs and frozen transport fares, are also seen as helping to ease inflation pressures. Despite this, the decision is expected to be close, reflecting deep divisions within the Bank’s policy committee. A narrow vote in favour of a cut is likely, with Governor Bailey expected to play a decisive role. To balance growth support with inflation risks, the Bank is expected to signal that future cuts are not automatic and will depend on incoming data. This cautious guidance aims to prevent excessive weakness in the pound. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions

Cooling UK Inflation and Venezuela Risk Set the Tone for Today’s Trading In the United Kingdom, today’s inflation data is expected to confirm that price pressures are slowly easing. Economists broadly expect consumer price inflation to have fallen again in November, continuing the downward trend that began in October. Inflation is forecast to ease to around 3.5%, slightly lower than the previous month. While this is still well above the Bank of England’s target, it reinforces the idea that inflation has passed its peak and is now gradually moving in the right direction. Looking back over the past year, UK inflation has been uneven but clearly trending lower. Prices remained stubbornly high through much of the summer, driven by rising food costs, strong services inflation, and higher labour expenses. August marked the high point for inflation, after which momentum finally began to turn. October was an important moment, as it delivered the first decline in headline inflation since late spring, offering reassurance that price pressures were starting to cool. The expected easing in November is largely linked to falling supermarket prices. After food inflation accelerated in October, everyday items such as bread, milk, cereals, and coffee are believed to have become cheaper last month. This retreat in food prices likely helped offset price increases in other areas, particularly accommodation and hotel costs, which rose sharply due to seasonal demand. The overall result is a modest decline in headline inflation rather than a sharp drop. Despite this improvement, inflation across the services sector remains a concern. Prices in hospitality, leisure, and catering continue to rise at a faster pace, largely because businesses are facing higher wage bills and increased payroll related costs. Many firms have passed these costs on to customers, keeping service prices elevated even as goods inflation cools. This uneven picture explains why inflation is falling slowly and why policymakers remain cautious. For the British pound, easing inflation strengthens expectations that the BoE will begin cutting interest rates sooner rather than later. With economic growth weak, unemployment rising, and price pressures gradually easing, markets are increasingly confident that monetary policy will shift toward supporting growth. This expectation tends to weigh on sterling, particularly against currencies where rate cuts appear further away. At the same time, global markets are reacting to renewed geopolitical risk following statements from President Trump about Venezuela. Trump claimed that Venezuela is surrounded by a large military presence and announced a total blockade of sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving the country. He accused the Maduro government of using oil revenues to fund criminal activity and stated that Venezuelan assets must be returned to the US. Even though these remarks do not yet represent official government policy, the language alone has been enough to unsettle markets. Venezuela holds some of the largest oil reserves in the world, and any threat to its oil exports raises concerns about global supply. As a result, crude oil prices are sensitive to these developments, with traders pricing in the risk of tighter supply and higher energy costs. Rising geopolitical tension also tends to support safe-haven assets. The US dollar often benefits during periods of uncertainty, as investors seek stability and liquidity. Gold is another beneficiary, as it is commonly used as a hedge against political risk and market stress. If tensions around Venezuela escalate further or translate into concrete action, both the dollar and gold could see stronger demand. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions

Cooling Labor Markets and Softer Manufacturing Signal Slower Growth Into 2026 The US NFP report today is particularly important because it represents the first comprehensive look at the labor market since September, following disruption from a federal government shutdown. As a result, the release combines October and November employment data, complicating interpretation and heightening market sensitivity. Over the past 12 months, US job growth has slowed materially. Late 2024 delivered robust payroll gains well above 200K per month, but momentum faded steadily through 2025. Hiring nearly stalled during the summer before rebounding modestly to 119K jobs in September, the last clean data point before reporting interruptions. This slowdown is consistent with declining job openings, softer hiring intentions, and cooling demand for labor across cyclical sectors. October payrolls are expected to show a small job loss of around 10K, but this figure is largely irrelevant. The decline reflects technical distortions tied to delayed resignation dates for federal workers rather than genuine economic weakness. As such, markets will focus almost entirely on November payrolls, which are expected to show a modest recovery of around 50K jobs. Even at that level, job creation would represent a sharp slowdown from earlier in the year and reinforce the narrative of a labor market losing momentum. The unemployment rate further complicates the picture. October’s rate will not be released at all, while November’s rate is expected to jump to 4.5%. This increase is widely seen as artificial, driven by furloughed federal employees being mechanically counted as unemployed during the shutdown reference week. As a result, investors are likely to discount the headline unemployment rate and focus instead on payroll growth and wages. With the unemployment rate distorted, Average Hourly Earnings becomes the most important indicator for policymakers. Wage growth is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, keeping annual growth near 3.5%–3.8%. While this represents moderation from prior peaks, it remains elevated enough to keep inflation risks on the Federal Reserve’s radar. On another aspect, the PMI data from the US and Europe reinforce the same underlying message as the labor market: growth is slowing, but services remain a stabilizing force. In the US, PMI trends over the past year have shown a clear divergence. Manufacturing activity weakened steadily through 2025 as new orders slowed, inventories adjusted, and external demand softened. Recent manufacturing PMI readings have drifted toward the 50 expansion threshold, signaling stagnation rather than outright contraction. By contrast, US services PMI has remained firmly in expansion territory, generally in the mid-50s, supported by consumer demand and labor-intensive sectors. However, even services activity has begun to moderate from earlier highs, suggesting that overall growth momentum is cooling rather than accelerating. European PMI data tell a similar, but more fragile, story. Over the past 12 months, Eurozone manufacturing has struggled to sustain expansion, frequently hovering near or below the 50 level. Weak export demand, subdued capital investment, and persistent cost pressures have weighed heavily on factories, particularly in core economies such as Germany and France. Services activity in Europe has been more resilient, keeping the composite PMI marginally in expansion territory for much of the year. However, growth remains uneven across countries, and the overall recovery is delicate. Current flash PMI expectations point to Eurozone manufacturing near breakeven and services remaining modestly above 50, a combination consistent with low growth rather than a renewed expansion cycle. Taken together, the NFP and PMI data highlight a critical policy divergence heading into 2026. Markets currently expect further rate cuts, particularly in the US, as slowing job growth and softer manufacturing activity point toward easing inflation pressures. The Federal Reserve, however, remains more cautious, projecting fewer cuts and emphasizing the need for confirmation that wage growth and inflation are sustainably moderating. In Europe, fragile PMI readings reinforce expectations that the European Central Bank will maintain an accommodative stance for longer, as growth remains uneven and vulnerable to external shocks. The risk for markets lies in repricing. If US payrolls and wage growth prove stronger than expected, rate-cut expectations could unwind quickly, driving volatility across bonds, currencies, and equities. Conversely, weaker employment and softer PMI readings would strengthen the case for additional easing and reinforce the market’s current bias. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions

Canada Awaits Inflation Report as Zelenskyy Moves to Abandon NATO Ambition Six G10 central banks are meeting, including the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, Norges Bank, Sweden’s Riksbank, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the Bank of Japan. Most are expected to hold rates steady, reflecting confidence that inflation pressures have eased but are not yet fully defeated. The Bank of England is the key exception and is expected to cut rates, while the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates as it continues to normalize policy. Within this global setting, Canada’s inflation data for November is expected to confirm a pattern of moderation seen over the past year. Inflation at the start of the year was already well below earlier peaks and has since moved in a narrow range close to the Bank of Canada’s target. After edging higher in late summer, inflation eased again in October as gasoline and some food prices declined. Underlying price pressures have remained relatively stable, suggesting that the overall inflation trend is no longer accelerating. Markets expect today’s data to show inflation holding near recent levels. Such an outcome would support the Bank of Canada’s decision last week to remain on hold and help explain why the reaction to this week’s domestic data, including retail sales and portfolio flows, may be limited. That said, markets have begun to price in a higher chance of a rate hike later in the cycle, particularly in the second half of next year. Governor Macklem’s upcoming speech in Montreal will be closely watched for any caution against tightening financial conditions too early. Geopolitical developments are also influencing market sentiment. Over the weekend, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy held extended talks in Berlin with United States envoys aimed at ending the war with Russia. Zelenskyy offered to drop Ukraine’s NATO ambitions in exchange for legally binding Western security guarantees, a significant shift in position that aligns with one of Russia’s long-stated demands. While progress was reported and talks are set to continue, the situation remains uncertain and highly sensitive. Overall, if today’s inflation data confirms that price growth remains contained, it will reinforce the view that Canada has entered a more stable phase of inflation, even as global policy shifts and geopolitical risks continue to shape the broader economic outlook. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

SNB Stays on Hold as Trump Claims Tariff-Driven Debt Reduction and Economic Strength The global financial landscape closed the year with several important policy decisions, including the latest update from the Swiss National Bank. The SNB kept its policy rate at 0%. Banks’ sight deposits will continue to earn the policy rate up to a set threshold, while deposits above that level remain discounted by 0.25%. The bank also reiterated its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market when needed. Inflation in Switzerland softened slightly, falling from 0.2% in August to 0.0% in November, driven by lower hotel prices, rents, and clothing costs. Despite this short term drop, medium term inflation pressure has barely changed. The SNB expects average inflation at 0.2% in 2025, 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027. These figures remain within the range of price stability and assume the policy rate stays at 0% throughout the forecast horizon. The Swiss economy contracted in the third quarter, mostly due to the pharmaceuticals sector. Production had surged early in the year as companies accelerated deliveries to the US before potential tariff changes, followed by a correction in later quarters. Other industries and services saw slight increases, but overall growth remained soft and unemployment continued to rise. Still, Switzerland’s outlook has improved slightly with lower US tariffs and better global conditions. GDP is expected to grow just under 1.5% in 2025 and around 1% in 2026, while unemployment will likely continue to edge higher. The biggest risk for Switzerland remains global economic trends. The SNB noted that overall inflation pressure has barely changed. Its policy remains supportive through low rates, credit growth, and exchange rate effects. The bank expects inflation to rise gradually while staying within the stable range. It also confirmed it is willing to act if conditions require, including the possibility of returning to negative rates. Other central bank news added to the global picture. The Bank of England’s Governor Bailey said UK household and corporate balance sheets remain robust and highlighted ongoing questions about the appropriate level of reserves and the pace at which interest rate risk should be reduced on the bank’s balance sheet. In the US, President Trump claimed that tariff revenue will soon help pay down the national debt. He also said he regularly discusses artificial intelligence with China’s President Xi and engages China and Russia on denuclearization. He argued that inflation inherited from the previous administration has eased, that prices and energy costs are improving, and that the stock market has reached record highs. The Federal Reserve confirmed that all eleven reserve bank presidents were unanimously reappointed to new terms beginning next March, except for Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic who had already announced his retirement. Overall, Switzerland faces a cautious but stable environment, supported by low inflation and gradual economic improvement. Global conditions remain uncertain, yet resilient, with central banks maintaining flexible strategies to respond to shifting risks and opportunities. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Fed Cuts Rates as US Economy Shows Signs of Cooling, SNB Holds Steady The final stretch of the year has delivered two closely watched central bank events. The FOMC surprised markets with a reduction in its policy rate while the Swiss National Bank prepared for its own meeting under far more predictable conditions. In the US, the Federal Reserve cut the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bp to a range of 3.5-3.75%. This marked the latest step in a long process of easing that began after policy rates peaked at 5.5% last year. What drove this move was a steady softening in economic indicators that, while not alarming, signaled that the period of exceptionally tight financial conditions had run its course. Job gains in the US have slowed over the year and the unemployment rate has edged higher since September. More recent data offer a consistent picture of a labor market that is cooling but still functioning well. Inflation has risen slightly from earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated. However, it has not shown signs of accelerating. The Fed judged that downside risks to employment have increased in recent months and that supporting labor market stability is becoming more important. With inflation still above its goal of 2% but not rising in a persistent way, the Committee concluded that a modest rate cut would improve the balance of risks. The Federal Reserve also introduced a significant change to its balance sheet operations. It determined that reserve balances had fallen to ample levels and announced that it would begin purchasing shorter term Treasury securities as needed in order to maintain sufficient liquidity. This step, which could amount to tens of billions of dollars per month, is designed to stabilize money markets and ensure smooth monetary policy transmission. The change was notable because it injects additional liquidity at a time when markets are already adjusting to lower policy rates. The effect was visible immediately as Treasury yields eased, equity markets firmed and the dollar softened. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell described the economic outlook as highly uncertain. He indicated that the Committee is prepared to wait for additional data before deciding whether further easing is appropriate. A backlog of economic reports caused by a government shutdown means that key information such as employment and inflation readings will arrive in clusters over the coming weeks. Powell emphasized that the path of policy will depend heavily on how these numbers evolve and how the economy responds to the cumulative rate cuts delivered since last year. He also noted that productivity has been stronger than expected and suggested that investments in artificial intelligence and data infrastructure may be contributing to that trend, although its scale remains uncertain. Financial markets reacted cautiously to the Federal Reserve’s rate cut. The dollar softened against major currencies as investors interpreted the move and Powell’s comments as a signal that policy will remain patient in the near term. Equities showed a mixed performance, with technology stocks and other growth sectors weakening while some rate sensitive areas were more stable, reflecting uncertainty about the broader economic outlook. Digital assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, declined following the announcement, as investors remained cautious despite the Fed’s liquidity measures, and overall trading volumes stayed moderate while markets awaited upcoming economic data. While the Federal Reserve adjusted policy, the Swiss National Bank entered its December meeting facing a very different situation. A Bloomberg survey found no economists expecting a rate cut and market pricing placed the odds of one well below 10%. This confidence stemmed from the clear stance taken by Chairman Schlegel who repeatedly stressed that the central bank focuses on medium term price stability rather than reacting to short term inflation movements. Inflation in Switzerland fell from 0.2% in August and September to 0% in November. This level is fully consistent with the Swiss National Bank's price stability definition of 0-2%. Because inflation in Switzerland often moves in response to exchange rate fluctuations and energy prices, policymakers view these shifts as temporary and unlikely to have lasting economic effects. As a result, they see little need to make abrupt policy adjustments in response to these swings. Schlegel also made clear that although the Swiss National Bank retains the ability to push rates back into negative territory, doing so would require unusually severe conditions. Understanding the Swiss National Banks decisions becomes clearer when viewed through the idea of a reaction function that links interest rate choices to a few key variables. Last months inflation relative to the previous policy rate and the size of the last rate change tend to carry the most weight. Since the central bank typically adjusts slowly and since inflation remains low and stable, the most likely decision is to maintain steady policy. Today’s Swiss National Bank meeting serves as the final major economic event of the day. With inflation contained, moderate economic growth and a stable currency, the institution has room to leave policy unchanged. Markets will pay attention to any remarks on future risks, but the expectation remains that stability will be the theme. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Bank of Canada Holds Steady While the Fed Prepares for Rate Cut The Canadian economy finds itself at a turning point as the Bank of Canada prepares for its final policy meeting of the year. After several months of cutting interest rates, the central bank is now widely expected to hold the overnight rate steady. Recent data show that the economy is stronger than many anticipated, leaving little justification for additional easing. This raises an important question for investors and observers alike: what comes next for Canada’s economy and how might the Bank of Canada and the United States Federal Reserve respond after their upcoming decisions? Over the past quarter, Canada delivered a far stronger growth result than expected. Third quarter output rebounded sharply, surprising analysts who had expected only modest expansion. That bounce, together with robust job creation and a falling unemployment rate, has strengthened the view that the economy no longer requires monetary support. The focus has shifted toward ensuring that growth does not overheat and that inflation remains under control. On the inflation front, core measures remain stubborn. Excluding volatile items such as food and energy, prices continue to rise at rates above what the Bank of Canada considers sustainable in the long term. Wage growth has also remained firm, supporting household income and consumer spending. Domestic demand continues to show resilience, and supply pressures in certain sectors suggest a risk that businesses may pass higher costs on to consumers, keeping inflation elevated. Given this backdrop, the Bank of Canada appears ready to conclude the era of easy money. Holding the policy rate steady signals that the bank is now focused on stability, aiming to keep inflation near its target while supporting continued growth and employment. Policymakers are likely to remain vigilant, and if inflation accelerates or the labor market remains unusually tight, the central bank may reconsider rate increases in the future. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is charting a different course. The United States economy is showing signs of slowing, but remains on a soft landing without a clear slide into recession. Growth has moderated compared with the post-pandemic boom, with forecasts indicating that economic activity will continue at a modest pace over the next year. Consumer demand remains an important support, with incomes rising and personal spending holding up despite elevated borrowing costs. The labor market in the United States has cooled from its hot phase earlier in the year. Job creation has slowed, and hiring is weaker than in the boom months. Unemployment remains low, but the pace of new job additions has softened, particularly in sectors sensitive to interest rates such as durable goods, transportation, and certain services. At the same time, inflation continues to complicate the policy outlook. Headline consumer prices remain elevated, while core inflation is steady near three percent. Consumers continue to anticipate rising costs for essentials, including rent, healthcare, and education. This divergence between Canada and the United States could have important implications for global money flows and exchange rates. A stable or potentially higher Canadian policy rate alongside a falling US rate could make Canadian assets more attractive to investors seeking yield. This may strengthen the Canadian dollar and direct capital into domestic bond markets. It may also give the Bank of Canada room to adjust its balance sheet, potentially slowing the pace of asset reductions or reintroducing selective short-term funding operations as it transitions toward a neutral stance. The Federal Reserve’s decision will also have significant effects. If the Fed cuts rates but signals that this is the last easing for some time, markets may view the move as a hawkish cut, limiting the decline of the US dollar. Even so, higher Canadian yields and steady domestic growth may keep the loonie competitive and potentially attract capital northward. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

RBA Takes Center Stage as Markets Expect a Steady Hold and a Firm Tone The spotlight turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia as it prepares to deliver its final interest rate decision of the year. Markets are almost certain that the central bank will keep the cash rate unchanged at 3.60%. There are no new economic projections scheduled for this meeting, which means traders will focus entirely on how the RBA frames its guidance and how Governor Michele Bullock interprets the latest economic signals. Governor Bullock has already set a cautious tone after warning last week about rising inflation and the possible policy consequences that may follow. Her remarks suggested a willingness to act more aggressively if needed. This firm stance is visible in market pricing, where expectations for interest rate cuts have disappeared and have been replaced with growing confidence in future hikes as early as the middle of 2026. This shift came after inflation in the September quarter ran hotter than expected and created renewed concern that price pressures remain sticky. The RBA’s warning that inflation has recently picked up will be the key phrase traders revisit today. It reflects the central bank’s growing discomfort, especially after the October CPI report showed both headline and trimmed mean inflation climbing above the upper end of the target band. Household spending also jumped 1.3%, the strongest increase since January 2024, driven mostly by non essential purchases. This suggests that consumers are still willing to spend, which makes it harder for inflation to cool. The labour market adds another layer of pressure. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, supported by a surge in jobs, while underemployment and youth unemployment also declined. These developments point to a labour market that is tightening again. A tighter job market increases the risk of stronger wage growth at a time when productivity remains weak and labour costs remain high. With these conditions, the RBA is likely weighing only two choices, which are to hold or to hike. A cut is no longer part of the discussion. Traders will pay close attention to the language used in the policy statement, especially the final paragraph which often hints at the direction of future policy. Any change in tone is more likely to lean firm rather than soft. It is also worth remembering that Governor Bullock often sounds more hawkish in her public remarks compared to the more balanced tone of the Board drafted statement, so market volatility may rise during the period between the decision and her press conference. Despite the hawkish outlook, some analysts worry that market expectations may have gone beyond what the RBA is willing to confirm. This raises the risk of a buy the rumour and sell the fact reaction. If the central bank does not sound as aggressive as traders expect, the Australian Dollar could weaken in the short term, even if the cash rate is held steady. The aussie has already eased against the dollar ahead of the announcement. Markets expect the RBA to keep rates unchanged through the near term but have fully priced a hike by August 2026, with half the market expecting the first increase as early as June. While the RBA is the main event today for Asia Pacific traders, markets are also watching developments in the United States, particularly the October JOLTS Job Openings report. This data offers insight into how strong the job market remains, and the median forecast sits near 7.15M openings which is slightly below the previous month. However, even if the data comes in weaker, it is unlikely to influence the Federal Reserve decision set for tomorrow. The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25bp, and it rarely moves against what the market has already priced in. A significantly lower than expected JOLTS number could pull the dollar lower for a short time, while a much stronger reading could lift it briefly. Still, these reactions would likely be temporary since the overall direction of Fed policy is already well understood. The market will ultimately shift its attention to the updated projections and the comments from Chair Jerome Powell. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Dollar Stabilises Ahead of PCE Release as Markets Price in a Measured Fed Cut The upcoming release of the US PCE price index will take center stage in the market narrative as investors weigh the likelihood of another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Most market participants agree that the Fed is poised to trim rates by 25 basis points this month. However, the tone that policymakers adopt regarding future adjustments remains uncertain. The backlog of recent economic data paints a mixed picture, one that shows moderation rather than deterioration, and this leaves the central bank walking a delicate line between easing financial conditions and maintaining caution. The recent weakness in the ADP payrolls report initially breathed life into a wave of bearish sentiment against the US dollar. Traders positioned for deeper labor market softness and even entertained the possibility that the Fed’s path toward easing could accelerate. That excitement cooled quickly when the latest job layoffs data failed to match those expectations. Instead of a spike in layoffs, the figures held firmer than expected which allowed the dollar to find a foothold and snap a four day losing streak. The index advanced modestly and managed to reclaim a nearby support zone which signaled that sellers may be growing more hesitant in the near term. Fresh data from the ISM services sector added to this shift in tone. The survey showed that activity continued to grow in November and remained comfortably above the expansion threshold. This reinforced the idea that the economy is slowing at a measured pace rather than tipping toward recession. For the Fed, such a backdrop supports the reasoning behind a cautious rate cut rather than an aggressive easing cycle. It keeps the door open to further cuts while also justifying a restrained approach until policymakers can evaluate whether inflation pressures are easing as expected. This brings the focus squarely onto the PCE price index. As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE carries significant weight in shaping the policy narrative. Over the past 12 months, the headline reading has hovered within a relatively narrow range near the mid 2% zone, while the core measure, which strips out food and energy, has remained slightly higher but stable. This consistency suggests that inflation has cooled from its previous peaks but still sits above the long term target which keeps pressure on the Fed to proceed gradually rather than aggressively. Given this trend, today’s reading is expected to follow a familiar pattern. It would not be surprising to see headline PCE come in just a touch above its recent average while the core figure continues to tread near the upper 2% area. Such an outcome would highlight that inflation is easing but still sticky enough to require a measured policy stance. Anything significantly softer could fuel speculation that the Fed might deliver more cuts in the months ahead. Conversely, a stronger reading would bolster the case for patience and could offer the dollar fresh support. The market reaction will likely hinge on whether the data deviates meaningfully from expectations. A cooler reading could revive US dollar selling and send the currency lower into the weekend. A firmer print could give the dollar reason to recover and possibly extend Thursday’s rebound. Traders remain especially sensitive to how this data will fit within the broader story of economic cooling without crisis. If inflation continues to ease while growth stabilises, the Fed may find enough room to maneuver without risking overtightening or aggressive easing. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

US Services Expand Again in November while Industrial Production Shows Modest Growth The latest figures from the Institute for Supply Management reveal that the US service sector continued to expand in November, reinforcing the steady momentum the industry has maintained throughout the year. The Services Purchasing Managers Index inched higher to 52.6% from the previous month’s 52.4%, marking the ninth straight month that the gauge has stayed above the crucial 50% level which separates expansion from contraction. Although the rise was modest, it highlighted the continued resilience of the service economy even as certain components showed signs of softening. New orders, which often serve as an early signal of future business activity, slipped to 52.9% after a noticeable monthly decline. The easing in new demand suggests that businesses may be approaching the final stretch of the year with a more cautious outlook. Despite this pullback, the Business Activity Index showed a slight improvement and reached 54.5% which reflects that ongoing operations remain healthy even if forward looking momentum softened. The employment component painted a more mixed picture. The Employment Index improved slightly on a monthly basis and came in at 48.9% . Although the uptick offered some encouragement, it still remained below the 50% value which indicates contraction. This suggests that service firms may still be hesitant to scale up hiring aggressively, possibly due to the broader uncertainty surrounding wage pressures, operating costs and demand conditions heading into the new year. Industrial production data added nuance to the overall economic landscape. The Federal Reserve reported that industrial output edged higher by 0.1% in September compared to the previous month. Manufacturing output was flat, mining activity showed no change and utilities posted a modest gain of 1.1% . When measured against the same month a year earlier, total industrial production expanded by 1.6% which signaled that the sector continued to progress at a measured but stable pace. Manufacturing improved by 1.5% over the year, mining rose by 2.8% and utilities increased by 1.4%. Capacity utilization, which reflects how much of the country’s industrial capacity is being used, stood at 75.9%. Although this level was still 3.6 percentage points below its long run average, it was 1.4 percentage points higher than the figure recorded a year earlier. This indicates that the industrial sector remains below full efficiency but is improving slowly, suggesting room for further expansion should demand conditions strengthen. With no major high impact events on the economic calendar and no fresh catalysts expected to sway policy makers at the Federal Reserve, markets may turn their attention to technical dynamics today. The US Dollar Index is currently trading below the EMA 200, which continues to slope downward. This indicates that the broader trend remains bearish despite the recovery seen since late summer. Every attempt to break above the EMA 200 has been rejected so far, which confirms the moving average as a strong dynamic resistance. Price has also slipped below the short-term ascending trendline that guided the rally from September. The recent dip has brought the index into the upper region of the Ichimoku Cloud. Trading inside the cloud usually signals uncertainty and the potential start of a trend shift. However, the fact that the cloud is still relatively flat and the forward cloud does not show strong bullish expansion limits the upside conviction. A clean move below the cloud would reinforce a return to a bearish phase, while a bounce from the lower cloud band would give the bulls another chance. The Fibonacci retracement drawn from the June low to the October high shows price hovering between the 0.618 and 0.786 levels. The index is currently testing the 0.618 zone, which aligns with light structure support. If this level fails, the next support sits near the 0.5 retracement and the lower edge of the cloud. The TDI indicator is clearly pointing lower. The green signal line has crossed below the red and yellow bases while both are heading toward the lower volatility band. This is a bearish momentum signal and suggests that sellers are gaining strength. The angle of the TDI drop also reflects increasing downside pressure, which usually precedes further weakness in the underlying asset. Taken together, the indicators present a bearish technical bias. The rejection near the EMA 200, the break of the rising trendline, and the weakening momentum on TDI support a move lower unless the cloud provides a strong bounce. If price closes below the lower edge of the Ichimoku Cloud, the likely scenario is a continuation toward the 0.5 retracement and possibly toward the 98 area. On the upside, any recovery would need to reclaim the broken trendline and establish support above the EMA 200 to revive a bullish case. Until that happens, the path of least resistance appears tilted to the downside. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Services Strength in the US Holds Steady as Australia Improves and Russia Warns Europe Over the past twelve months, the ISM Services PMI has mostly stayed above the critical 50 level, which signals that the country’s services sector continues to expand. Although there have been occasional dips, including a flat reading in September, the index consistently finds support and rebounds. October marked a solid recovery with a reading slightly above 52, driven by stronger business activity and new orders even as employment in the sector remained soft. This general pattern of resilience suggests that the services side of the American economy remains stable, supported by steady consumer spending and moderate inflation. There have been no major shocks that would dramatically alter this trend, which makes another reading in the low 50 range a reasonable expectation. A value close to 52.50 fits the recent trajectory, representing cautious but steady expansion rather than a surge or collapse. While US data is in focus, global conditions are getting more complicated too. Australia just posted a modest pickup in economic activity, with GDP rising 0.4% in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms and up a stronger 1.7% in nominal terms. The economy is still being propped up by domestic final demand, especially through private investment and household spending, which helped keep quarterly growth moving. The terms of trade inched higher by 0.3%, and the household saving to income ratio also climbed to 6.4% from 6.0%, showing a bit more financial cushion for consumers. Still, the overall trade picture was mixed because companies ran down inventories to support exports, and the rise in imports ended up dragging on net trade. These details matter since Australia often acts as a barometer for regional demand and commodity flows, both of which are tightly tied to the bigger global business cycle. On the geopolitical front, recent developments have added tension to an already delicate environment. US envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner, acting in an unofficial diplomatic capacity, held high level talks with President Putin in Moscow to present the latest version of the Trump administration’s proposed Ukraine peace plan. This follows earlier discussions in Miami with a Ukrainian delegation that revolved around difficult topics including potential territorial concessions and future boundaries in the Donbass region. Putin used the opportunity to deliver sharp warnings toward Europe, stating that if European countries initiate a conflict with Russia there would soon be no one left for them to negotiate with. He also emphasized that while Russia does not intend to fight European nations, it is fully prepared should war be forced upon it. These statements are a reminder that geopolitical risk remains a powerful force that can shift global sentiment very quickly. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

America’s Economy Reopens, But the Road Ahead Looks Different The United States government is finally open again after the longest shutdown in its history. Millions of Americans waited for this moment, and while the reopening brings relief, the impact on the economy will not disappear overnight. Many analysts believe the damage will show up in the official numbers for a while, even if some of it gets recovered as activity resumes. Before the shutdown, the economy actually looked strong. The Atlanta Fed even suggested that third quarter growth was running a little above 4% on an annualized basis. That was encouraging, but beneath the surface, the job market was already losing some steam. Hiring slowed down in the second and third quarter compared to last year, and unemployment in September climbed to 4.4% which was the highest in four years. Fed officials expected unemployment to peak at around 4.5%, so the risk seems to be on the upside. At the same time, President Trump has been adjusting tariffs. Several were lowered, including those from China and certain food products from Brazil. A new deal with Switzerland cut their tariff rate to 15% from 39% and there is growing talk that the 50% tariff on India might be trimmed as well. According to the Congressional Budget Office, these changes have pulled the average effective United States tariff down to roughly 16.5% from a little more than 20% only a few months ago. Because of that, the expected tariff income meant to reduce the deficit has also dropped, falling from an estimated $3T to about $2T. This makes the idea of a $2,000 tariff dividend for Americans much less likely to get approval from Congress. All of this is happening as the market tries to figure out what the Federal Reserve will do next. At first, traders lowered their expectations for another rate cut this year. That changed after New York Fed President John Williams suggested that a further adjustment in rates may be needed soon. Markets quickly reacted and now see a strong chance of a rate cut in late November. On top of that, everyone is waiting for President Trump to announce who will replace Jerome Powell as the next Fed Chair. Kevin Hassett, head of the National Economic Council, is currently seen as the most likely choice. Outside the United States, the global picture is just as busy. In the United Kingdom, a stretch of weak economic numbers and a stricter Autumn Budget have pushed expectations toward a rate cut when the Bank of England meets on December 18. Investors now see easing as the base case, expecting policymakers to respond to soft growth and below target inflation. Australia is dealing with a very different situation. A strong jobs report and firmer inflation have convinced the market that the Reserve Bank of Australia is done cutting rates for now. Traders have pushed expectations for the next rate cut all the way to the middle of 2026, signaling confidence that inflation will stay sticky and recession risks will remain low. Japan adds another twist. For months, the Bank of Japan has been hinting at slow policy normalization, yet markets kept doubting a rate hike. That changed when the yen weakened and economic data firmed up. By the end of November, traders were pricing in a better than 50% chance of a hike, the highest level in weeks. All these shifts show that the world is entering a new phase. Countries are becoming more protective of their interests and less dependent on American leadership. The United States is also becoming more selective about its global commitments. It feels like the start of a more mixed and complicated era where influence is shared rather than dominated by any single power. For investors, businesses, and policy makers, this means flexibility will be essential. The outlook for interest rates, inflation, global trade, and currency movements is changing faster than before. The safest approach is not to rely on old assumptions, but to stay alert and ready to adjust. The reopening of the government is a relief, but it also marks the beginning of a period when the United States must navigate a world that is becoming more competitive and more unpredictable. The next few months will reveal how well America can adapt to this new landscape. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

US Manufacturing Awaits Fresh ISM Data After a Year of Mixed Signals The US manufacturing sector is back in the spotlight today as markets wait for the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI report. Over the past 12 months, the story has been one of uneven performance. There were a few moments early in the year when the index briefly climbed above the expansion line, crossing the 50 mark in January and February. Those gains did not last. By mid 2025 the momentum faded and the PMI slipped back into contraction territory, hovering around the 48 to 49 range as new orders softened and production cooled. As the year progressed, the pattern remained the same. Manufacturing struggled with weak demand, slow activity in new orders, and cautious sentiment from businesses. September landed at 49.1 while October dipped to 48.7, reinforcing the broader trend that factories are still not fully bouncing back. Most sub components have been showing similar weakness, particularly employment and inventories, which have been moving in line with the broader slowdown. That brings us to today’s release. Based on recent indicators, expectations are fairly restrained. The consensus is that the PMI will stay below 50, which still signals contraction, but the degree of softness should not be dramatic. A reading in the 48.5 to 49.2 area seems the most reasonable outcome given the current landscape. Some analysts believe a slight improvement could appear if new orders or production pick up even a little, which might push the number closer to 49.5 or even near the edge of expansion. However, a clean break above 50 still feels unlikely without stronger demand or a clearer boost from exports. There are risks on both sides. Continued weakness in global demand, lingering tariff uncertainties, or higher input costs could pull the PMI lower. On the other hand, any surprise in new orders, better inventory management, or signs of a steadier consumer environment could help the index stabilize. Either way, today’s report will help clarify whether the manufacturing sector is slowly finding its footing or simply drifting sideways. With investors watching for any early hints of a turnaround, even a small surprise can influence expectations for growth, sentiment, and future policy discussions. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Calm Economic Calendar, But Trump and Putin Keep Investors on Edge It’s a relatively calm Friday on the economic calendar, with only one major data release drawing attention: Canada’s latest GDP report. Over the past 12 months, the economy has seen a mix of expansion and contraction. Late 2024 and early 2025 posted solid gains, with the first quarter growing 0.5%. But momentum faltered in the second quarter of 2025 when GDP slipped 0.4%, largely because of weaker exports and a pullback in business investment. Recent months, however, have hinted at a mild recovery. Sectors like manufacturing, finance and insurance, and oil and gas have shown early signs of stabilization. While growth remains soft overall, the data points to a gradual improvement rather than a continued decline. With that backdrop, expectations for today’s GDP release are modest. Analysts generally anticipate a small positive gain, with forecasts pointing to roughly 0.1 to 0.3% quarter-over-quarter growth. On a monthly basis, the economy is also expected to show a mild improvement, with GDP m/m likely in the range of 0.1 to 0.2%, supported by steady activity in services, manufacturing, and energy. On a yearly basis, Canada is still expected to remain in positive territory, likely landing somewhere between 0.5 and 1% as the economy gradually recovers from the earlier slowdown. Risks remain on both sides. Exports could continue to drag, especially if global demand stays weak, and cautious business investment may limit the pace of any rebound. But stronger household spending or a pickup in construction activity could offer a lift. With no other major releases scheduled, markets will likely shift their focus to politics, where headlines are already stirring reactions. In the US, President Trump claimed that the country could “almost completely eliminate income tax” using tariff revenue, a statement that immediately sparked debate across economic and political circles. He also commented on Venezuela, saying the US would begin stopping them “on land soon,” adding to geopolitical tension. Across the globe, Russian President Putin publicly addressed the developing US-backed peace framework for the first time, saying Moscow is ready for “serious discussions.” Putin noted that the outline of the US-Ukraine draft could form the basis of a future peace agreement and that Washington appears to be taking Russia’s position into account ahead of next week’s talks. With the economic calendar largely empty, markets may react more sharply than usual to any follow-up statements or political developments throughout the day. If Canada’s GDP surprises — or if further comments from Washington, Moscow, or Kyiv emerge — traders could see an otherwise quiet Friday turn into an active session. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

USD Index Tests Key Trendline Amid Conflicting US Economic Signals Initial jobless claims in the United States slipped to 216K, which shows the labor market is still holding up. The insured unemployment rate stayed at 1.3% and insured unemployment dipped slightly, which again points to stability in employment. Durable goods orders also came in stronger than expected as new orders rose 0.5%, with transportation equipment leading the gains. Even when transportation is taken out, orders still increased, which suggests businesses are continuing to invest and activity is not stalling. On the other hand, the Chicago Business Barometer came in extremely weak at 36.3, its lowest reading since May 2024. Almost every component related to activity such as new orders, employment, production, inventories and backlogs fell at a faster pace, clearly signaling contraction. Only prices paid and supplier deliveries pointed to expansion, which does not offset the overall weakness in the report. With mixed signals showing a still resilient labor market and solid durable goods orders, but a deeply negative Chicago PMI, the incoming picture leans toward a market that is not strongly pulled in any single direction. Since there is nothing in today’s calendar that would influence monetary policy and volatility is expected to be limited, the most likely price movement is neutral with slight choppiness rather than a clear uptrend or downtrend. The US Dollar Index is currently sitting right on the ascending trendline that has supported the uptrend since early October. This level is crucial because a clean bounce from this trendline usually shows buyers are still in control, but a decisive break below it often marks the start of a deeper pullback. The EMA 200 is above the price, which means the broader long term trend is still bearish, yet the recent months show a clear medium term recovery that has been climbing steadily. Price is also sitting above the Ichimoku Cloud however momentum is clearly weakening. If price falls into the cloud, that often signals a period of indecision or a shift toward a neutral trend. The Fibonacci retracement levels show that price has been struggling around the 61.8 and 100 level has acted as a ceiling several times. The recent rejection from that zone suggests strong resistance remains in place. Looking at the TDI, the green price line has crossed below the red signal line and is pointing downward, a typical sign of weakening bullish momentum. The yellow baseline is flattening, which reinforces a neutral to slightly bearish shift in the short term. Volatility bands are not expanding, so no strong move is developing just yet. Putting everything together, the technical bias is slightly bearish in the very short term because momentum indicators are weakening and price is testing the trendline from above. However, the overall structure is not decisively bearish, as the cloud and trendline support remain intact. If the trendline holds, price may attempt another push upward, but if it breaks cleanly below this level and dips into the Ichimoku Cloud, the most likely move would be a shift toward a neutral to downtrend phase. Based on the current setup, the price is more likely to lean neutral with a mild downward pressure unless buyers strongly defend the trendline in the next sessions. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

RBNZ Cuts, Aussie Inflation Rises as Markets Brace for UK Budget Earlier this morning, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a quarter-point cut to the Official Cash Rate, bringing it to 2.25%, supported by a 5–1 vote. While the move eases policy to support the economy, the tone of the minutes was far from dovish. Annual inflation currently sits at 3%, the top of the central bank’s target range, and core and non-tradables inflation remain elevated. Policymakers warned that inflation could remain sticky if demand rebounds faster than expected or if businesses rebuild profit margins. The minutes revealed an internal debate about whether to pause rather than cut, acknowledging that prior easing is still filtering through the economy. Ultimately, the Committee opted for a cautious cut, signaling that while rates may drift lower, the pace will be careful and future moves will depend on incoming data. Lower interest rates are already supporting household spending, and signs of a stabilizing labour market provide some reassurance that the easing cycle will not be overly aggressive. For the New Zealand dollar, the combination of a hawkish cut and soft forward guidance suggests mild near-term downside, although stabilizing labour conditions could limit further losses. In Australia, the latest Consumer Price Index for October rose to 3.8% in the past twelve months, slightly above September’s 3.6%. Housing costs, food, and recreation continue to drive underlying price pressures, while the trimmed mean inflation increased to 3.3%, showing that core inflation remains elevated. Over the past year, inflation had been gradually easing, but this latest uptick indicates that the path back toward the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target band remains uneven. For the Australian dollar, the hotter-than-expected print provides some support, as it reduces expectations for near-term rate cuts and reinforces the RBA’s cautious approach. The data suggests that the central bank is likely to hold rates for longer rather than easing aggressively, waiting for a more sustained decline in inflation before considering cuts. With these developments setting the stage in the Asia-Pacific region, attention now turns to the UK, where Chancellor Reeves is poised to unveil the Autumn Budget. The government faces an estimated £20 billion fiscal shortfall and must balance raising revenue with avoiding measures that could slow growth or unsettle markets. The lead-up to the Budget has been unusual, with numerous tax ideas floated, flagged, leaked, and then retracted, creating confusion among businesses, investors, and the public. This “kite flying” of policy proposals is designed to test reactions before committing, but it has made it harder to predict what the final plans will look like. Analysts now expect a mix of measures. Some targeted tax increases are likely, including freezing income tax thresholds, adjusting council taxes, and revising pension schemes. Other areas that could be tapped include high-value property taxes, a gambling levy, and potentially new levies on electric vehicles. At the same time, the government may offer relief measures to reduce the cost of living, such as scrapping the two-child welfare cap, cutting VAT on energy bills, and freezing rail fares. Economists warn that the challenge will be to balance these actions carefully; too much in tax increases could slow growth, while too little may fail to close the fiscal gap, raising borrowing costs and putting pressure on the pound. The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts, released alongside the Budget, are another key focus. The OBR may revise down growth and productivity forecasts, reflecting weaker economic conditions, lower expected output, and lingering uncertainty in key sectors. These projections will influence how markets view the UK’s fiscal sustainability and could affect bond yields, investor confidence, and the pound. The Budget will also indicate whether the government can expand its fiscal headroom—the buffer that allows spending or tax cuts without breaking fiscal rules—from around £10 billion to £15 billion, which will be crucial for funding future priorities without triggering financial stress. Overall, the Autumn Budget will be closely watched for its ability to thread the needle between revenue generation, supporting growth, and maintaining market confidence. For investors, businesses, and households, the key questions will be how much the government leans on taxes versus spending restraint, whether the relief measures are sufficient to ease the cost-of-living pressures, and how the OBR’s outlook affects perceptions of long-term fiscal stability. Markets are likely to react sharply, with the pound especially sensitive to any surprise in either direction, making this one of the most important events in the UK economic calendar for 2025. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Key Inflation and Spending Reports Today Could Confirm or Challenge Fed Cut Expectations Today’s data releases will shine a spotlight on two of the most important gauges of the US economy: how consumers are spending and how much pressure there is on business costs. The retail sales number will reflect how households are behaving, and the PPI will hint at how much inflation might be bubbling up behind the scenes. Together they frame the story facing the Fed as it contemplates its next move. Over the past year retail spending has grown, though the pace has moderated. The US Census Bureau reported that retail trade and food services sales rose nearly 5% compared with the same period last year. That suggests consumers remain active, but the strength is not bursting forward. On the inflation side, the producer price index—the measure of how much producers receive—has shown only modest increases. For example the 12-month increase in PPI was about 2.6% , according to data from ycharts.com.That is well below the high rates seen earlier in the cycle, which suggests inflation pressures may be under control but are not gone. Given that backdrop expectations for today’s retail sales call for a modest rise rather than a sharp jump. If spending holds up a bit stronger than anticipated it would signal that the consumer is more resilient than many had feared. That could embolden the Fed. Conversely if retail sales appear weak or even slip it would raise questions about whether households are beginning to tighten their belts in the face of high prices, which might give the Fed more reason to pause. For the PPI the key will be whether cost pressures are creeping back up. A higher-than-expected PPI number would suggest inflation is less tamed than markets hope and could make the Fed more reluctant to cut rates. A softer reading would support the view that inflation is cooling and strengthen arguments for easing. What makes today’s data especially important is how it could affect the Fed’s decision-making at its December meeting. Currently markets place about an 80% chance of a rate cut at that meeting. If both retail sales and the PPI come in weak, it would reinforce the case for a cut and may increase the likelihood that the Fed follows through in December. If instead spending holds up and producer prices show renewed strength, the Fed may decide that it needs more evidence before easing, and that could delay or reduce the size of a cut. In other words, these data could sway the balance between cutting soon and waiting longer. In essence, these reports are not just about numbers today. They will feed into the Fed’s view of the economy’s momentum and inflation trajectory. If the consumer remains strong while costs are stable, the Fed may feel more confident in reducing rates. If the consumer falters and inflation picks up, the Fed may hold off. Markets and policy watchers will be reading between the lines of these data releases to assess how the path to December might unfold. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Ifo Business Climate Shows Cautious Optimism as Investors Eye Upcoming Data With the global economic calendar unusually quiet today, the spotlight naturally shifts to Germany’s latest Ifo Business Climate report. When there are no major releases competing for attention, this survey becomes even more influential because it offers one of the clearest snapshots of business sentiment in Europe’s largest economy. Investors are using it as the main guide for market direction while waiting for heavier data later in the week. The Ifo index has spent the past year moving within a tight and modest range. According to ycharts.com, the index was sitting in the mid eighties a year ago and has slowly climbed into the high eighties as firms adjusted to weaker exports, softer domestic demand and higher costs. The October report showed an improvement to 88.4 compared with the dip in September, and the Ifo Institute noted on ifo.de that companies were slightly more hopeful about the months ahead even though they still felt the current business environment was challenging. This steady but cautious trend suggests that the recovery is not strong but has also not derailed. Given this backdrop, today’s Ifo reading is expected to come in close to the recent average. If sentiment holds firm, the index may stay in the high eighties, signaling that companies believe conditions could slowly improve. A weaker result would show that confidence has slipped again and that businesses are still finding it hard to see clear progress. While the Ifo survey takes center stage today, markets are already positioning for what may be a more eventful week ahead. The odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December climbed sharply after New York Fed President Williams said he sees room for a near term cut. These expectations had fallen below thirty percent last week but quickly doubled after his remarks. Even with this shift, many investors still believe the deciding factor will be the incoming United States labor data. Retail sales, producer prices, house prices and the Conference Board consumer confidence figures will all help shape expectations. Smaller releases such as the weekly ADP estimate and jobless claims likely will not move markets much, especially with the United States closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday. In Europe, attention will turn to the United Kingdom budget on November 26. Chancellor Reeves faces a difficult balancing act as she aims to tighten fiscal policy without upsetting the government’s base or giving more political momentum to Reform UK. In Asia, Japan will publish Tokyo consumer inflation which may have softened, along with the first reading of October industrial output that appears to have contracted again. Tensions between Japan and China also remain elevated and the effects on trade and investment may not be over. The only major central bank meeting this week comes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The RBNZ has already delivered a series of cuts this year including a larger fifty basis point cut last month and three quarter point reductions earlier in the year. With the overnight rate now at 2.5%, a smaller quarter point cut appears the most likely step as the bank approaches what could be its final rate level near 2%. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Markets Digest Fed Meeting Minutes as Investors Eye Tonight’s Jobs Report Earlier this morning, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its October meeting, providing deeper insight into the Committee’s thinking as it lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 3.75–4%. The minutes highlighted that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace, with job gains slowing and the unemployment rate edging up but remaining low. Inflation remained somewhat elevated, though measures of longer-term expectations were largely well anchored, reflecting confidence that the economy would eventually return to the Fed’s 2% objective. Committee participants noted that downside risks to employment had increased in recent months, while upside risks to inflation had moderated or remained steady. Many members supported the modest easing, citing elevated employment risks, while others preferred to maintain rates until there was clearer evidence that inflation was moving toward the target. The minutes also emphasized that monetary policy is not on a preset path and will continue to be informed by incoming data, financial conditions, and evolving economic developments. On balance sheet policy, the Fed confirmed that runoff of its securities holdings would conclude on December 1. Reinvestments of principal payments will be directed toward Treasury bills, providing flexibility to accommodate future reserve demand and maintain stability in money markets. Committee members highlighted that maintaining ample reserves is key to controlling the federal funds rate and ensuring the smooth functioning of the Treasury and repo markets. Attention now turns to tonight’s delayed September jobs report, postponed due to the recent government shutdown. Economists anticipate modest payroll gains and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, reflecting a labor market that has softened but remains resilient. Private-sector data suggest slower hiring, with some reports pointing to job losses and historically low corporate hiring plans. The report is expected to provide the first timely snapshot of labor conditions in months, offering critical insight for investors and policymakers alike. A report in line with expectations would likely confirm gradual softening of the labor market without signaling a severe slowdown, while a weaker-than-expected figure could reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance and increase speculation that future rate cuts may be necessary. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected result could lift the dollar and Treasury yields, as markets reassess the likelihood of further easing. With the October and November employment reports also delayed, tonight’s data will be one of the few current indicators available ahead of the Fed’s December meeting. Market participants will scrutinize the numbers closely, using them to gauge labor market resilience, inflation pressures, and the timing of potential policy adjustments, even as the economy continues to navigate elevated uncertainty and moderate growth. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

UK Inflation Expected to Ease to 3.5% in October, Likely Keeping Bank of England on Hold The UK is gearing up for another key inflation report today, and the market is watching closely to see whether price pressures are finally easing after months of stubborn readings. Over the past year, inflation has cooled from its highs but has struggled to break convincingly lower. The latest official figure showed annual inflation holding at 3.8% in September, the same pace as in August. This is a big improvement from the peak of more than 11% in 2022, but it still sits well above the Bank of England’s 2% target. Because inflation barely moved last month and because energy and food prices have been showing signs of easing, economists expect today’s data for October to come in a little softer, possibly around 3.5%. If that expectation is correct, the report would show that inflation is slowly heading in the right direction, even if the progress remains gradual. What happens today matters because it will help shape the Bank of England’s next policy move. A result that matches the forecast would send a clear message: inflation is cooling, but not fast enough to loosen monetary policy. Even at 3.5%, prices would still be rising well above the target, which means the Bank is unlikely to consider cutting interest rates yet. Instead, policymakers would probably prefer to wait and see a more convincing downward trend before making any changes. If the inflation figure were to surprise sharply lower, it might raise hopes of earlier rate cuts. If it came in higher, it could force the Bank to adopt a tougher stance. But a reading that lands exactly where the market expects sits right in the cautious middle. It reassures investors that inflation is not worsening, yet it also reminds everyone that the job is far from finished. Looking at Australia, the latest wage figures for September 2025 give a good sense of how the labor market is performing. Overall wages rose 0.8% for the quarter, the same as the previous quarter, while annual wage growth held steady at 3.4%, just slightly below the 3.5% recorded a year ago. Around 44% of jobs received a wage change, almost unchanged from 45% last year, though the average size of hourly wage increases slipped slightly from 3.7% to 3.5%. In the private sector, wages rose 0.7% for the quarter and 3.2% over the year, easing from 3.5% previously, while public sector wages increased 0.9% quarterly and 3.8% annually, slightly up from last year. These numbers suggest that wages are growing steadily but not accelerating, which is important for keeping inflation pressures under control. Since wage growth is moderate, it is less likely to push up costs for businesses and, in turn, consumer prices. The stability in both the proportion of jobs receiving increases and the size of those increases indicates the labor market is cooling gradually rather than weakening sharply. For policymakers, this provides reassurance that inflation could continue to ease without causing significant disruptions to employment, supporting a careful and measured approach to future monetary policy. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

RBA Minutes Show Bias Toward Holding Rates as Inflation Stays Elevated The US dollar was largely unchanged following comments from President Trump, who stated that tariffs are bringing semiconductor production back to the US and that he intends to push inflation to around 1% or slightly lower. Trump also argued that the US had “foolishly lost” the chip market to Taiwan and said he expects tariff-based dividends to be issued to Americans by mid-2026. Despite the remarks, the DXY index showed little reaction, suggesting that markets may have already priced in the potential impact or are waiting for concrete policy actions. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes for the monetary policy meeting last November 3-4. The bank decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at 3.60%, judging that monetary policy remains slightly restrictive even though financial conditions have eased following earlier rate cuts. Members noted that rate reductions had lowered borrowing costs, lifted housing prices and credit, and supported business debt growth, although scheduled mortgage payments were still historically high for many households. Risk premia in financial markets were low and funding remained readily available, leading the Board to acknowledge that financial conditions may now be less restrictive than in previous years. Inflation in the September quarter was higher than expected, with both headline and underlying inflation at or above 3%. While some drivers were temporary, the Board observed that price pressures were also strong in areas linked to domestic costs such as new home construction and market services, suggesting that underlying inflation might be more persistent than previously judged. The RBA expects underlying inflation to stay above 3% until the second half of 2026, and only return slightly above the midpoint of the target range in 2027. Labour market conditions continued to soften, with unemployment rising and participation edging lower, although indicators still point to some remaining tightness, including high job vacancies and firms reporting capacity constraints. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain close to 4.5% as economic growth stabilizes. GDP growth is expected to pick up gradually, driven by improving real incomes, tax cuts and the delayed effect of earlier monetary easing, while global growth is forecast to slow only modestly. Based on the minutes, the RBA is expected to keep interest rates on hold in the near term and maintain a cautious, data-dependent approach. The Board stated that it could afford to be patient as it assesses spare capacity, inflation momentum and the extent of policy restrictiveness. Further rate cuts remain possible if the labour market weakens more than expected or if household spending slows and excess capacity emerges, which would ease inflation pressures. However, if inflation proves sticky, if productivity remains weak or if demand rebounds strongly, the RBA may delay easing and keep rates higher for longer than markets previously anticipated. Overall, the minutes suggest a bias toward holding. Trading activity may remain muted today and tomorrow due to the lack of new economic data. However, market attention is expected to pick up later in the week, as the US releases missed data following the government shutdown, which could provide fresh direction for currency markets. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Economic Calendar Canada Inflation Set to Cool Again, But Core Pressures May Keep Bank of Canada Cautious Canada’s inflation data due tonight is expected to show a slower pace of price growth, offering a potential sign that the Bank of Canada is making progress in its battle to return inflation to target. Headline price gains in October are projected to ease, helped largely by a meaningful pullback in energy prices. Gasoline costs fell sharply during the month and are expected to be the main driver behind the moderation in consumer prices. Despite this expected cooling in the headline measure, core inflation is still anticipated to remain near the upper boundary of the central bank’s 1-3% target band, suggesting underlying price pressures are not yet fully resolved. Headline inflation has been running at an annualized pace of 3.6% this year, above the 2-4% average pace recorded from January through September. The Bank of Canada has repeatedly emphasized that it is focusing more on core inflation rather than the headline figure, and while core measures are currently a little above 3%, officials have suggested that underlying pressures are now trending closer to 2.5% percent. If tonight’s release shows continued stability or improvement in core readings, it may strengthen the view that inflation is gradually aligning with the central bank’s objective. Forecasters expect the headline Consumer Price Index to ease to around 2.1% y/y. The drag from energy prices is likely to dominate the monthly movement, while food inflation is expected to remain near last month’s pace. Core inflation measures are expected to show less progress. Price growth excluding food and energy is projected to hold near 2-4%, with the Bank of Canada’s preferred measures, CPI-trim and CPI-median, likely staying close to 3%. This is a level that does not signal price stability but does reflect gradual cooling from the more intense inflation pressures seen in the previous year. The inflation release comes ahead of a meaningful run of Canadian data next week, including updates on household spending, housing market activity, and retail sales. Statistics Canada has already signalled that retail spending likely contracted in September, reversing much of August’s gain. Even so, consumer activity through the third quarter appears to have maintained modest positive momentum, supported by card-spending indicators showing that households are cautious but still spending. The Canadian dollar could see significant movement following the data. If inflation comes in below expectations, particularly if core measures show convincing moderation, markets may increase speculation that the Bank of Canada could consider rate cuts earlier in 2025. In such a scenario, the currency may weaken as rate-cut expectations grow and yield spreads move against the Canadian dollar. However, if inflation once again surprises on the upside, particularly in core readings, markets may push back expectations for policy easing. This would likely support a stronger loonie, as traders position for interest rates to stay higher for longer. Whether tonight’s data ultimately shifts the Bank of Canada’s policy stance remains uncertain. While a softer inflation print would be welcomed, policymakers have signalled that they need clear and sustained progress toward the 2% target before considering rate cuts. One month of improvement, especially if driven mostly by volatile components like energy, may not be enough to alter the tone of the next monetary policy statement. Still, continued evidence that underlying inflation is drifting closer to 2.5% could reinforce confidence that the disinflation process is intact, allowing the Bank to adopt a more balanced or less restrictive communications approach. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Economic Calendar A Fragile Recovery: Fed Warns on Inflation While Washington Reopens After Record Shutdown Federal Reserve officials delivered a cautious and divided tone last night, emphasizing the challenges the US economy faces as inflation remains stubborn while the labor market shows early signs of softening. Fed’s Hammack warned that inflation is still too high and trending upward, with tariffs expected to push prices higher into early next year before fading in the second half. Although he described the labor market as broadly balanced, he acknowledged that softening job conditions are beginning to challenge the Fed’s employment mandate. Hammack added that monetary policy may be barely restrictive, suggesting that financial conditions are too loose to meaningfully cool inflation. Fed’s Musalem echoed concerns about uncertainty in the data and hiring behavior, saying businesses are pulling back because of unclear economic conditions. He emphasized that despite elevated inflation risks, the broader economy remains resilient. Musalem expects some weakness in the fourth quarter followed by a rebound early next year, supported by accommodative financial conditions and deregulation. Still, he warned that the Fed must move cautiously because there is little room to ease further without risking excess accommodation. He supported earlier rate cuts to protect the labor market but said policy now sits closer to neutral. Fed’s Kashkari maintained that inflation at 3% is still too high and highlighted mixed signals across the economy. Some sectors of the labor market appear under pressure, reinforcing the uncertainty around the overall outlook. Former Vice Chair Brainard added that cracks are forming beneath the surface, partly driven by the uneven effects of AI on productivity and employment. She said she would support a December rate cut because she sees a greater risk of a labor-driven downturn than of prolonged tariff-induced inflation. She agreed with officials who expect tariff effects to dissipate later next year, though she noted that policymakers remain in a difficult position as inflation cools but remains stuck above target. These warnings came alongside broader national developments. President Trump signed legislation to end the 43-day government shutdown, the longest in US history. The agreement reopens federal agencies, restores workers removed during the standoff, and provides back pay for hundreds of thousands of employees who worked without compensation. While Trump accused Democrats of causing massive financial damage, the Congressional Budget Office estimated a significantly smaller economic loss of about $14B. The shutdown underscored ongoing political divisions and added another layer of uncertainty for an economy already grappling with inflation, shifting labor dynamics, and fluctuating business confidence. Taken together, the economic signals present a landscape where inflation remains persistent but forward-looking risks lean toward softer labor conditions and cautious business sentiment. The Federal Reserve’s messaging reflects this tension, as policymakers attempt to balance inflation control with the need to prevent a deeper slowdown. With no high-impact economic data scheduled for release today, the US dollar is likely to trade without a strong catalyst and may remain range-bound as markets digest both Fed commentary and the broader political backdrop. The tone is slightly leaning dovish due to increasing labor market concerns and expectations that tariff effects will ease later next year, potentially limiting the dollar’s momentum in the near term. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Economic Calendar Australia Holds Steady, UK Falters as Growth Risks Rise Australia’s labour market showed steady resilience in October 2025, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.4% and the participation rate inching higher to 6%. Employment rose to 14.6M, a gain of roughly 27K jobs from September, while the underemployment rate stayed at 5.8%. The employment-to-population ratio remained at 64%, and total hours worked grew slightly to 1.99B. Compared with September, these figures suggest that hiring remains firm even as more people enter the workforce. The stable unemployment rate indicates that the market is absorbing the growing labour supply without showing signs of weakness. Rising hours worked also point to steady demand for labour, though the pace of growth has slowed. For the Reserve Bank of Australia, the data support a cautious stance. With the job market still tight and no clear signs of deterioration, the RBA is unlikely to rush into rate cuts. This steadiness tends to favor the Australian dollar, as it signals an economy holding up under current policy settings. Meanwhile, in the United Kingdom, attention turns to the release of the third-quarter GDP and its accompanying details. Monthly GDP contracted by 0.1% in July and grew by 0.1% in August, while September GDP is forecasted to be unchanged. Bloomberg’s median estimate points to a modest 0.2% quarterly growth in Q3, though risks remain tilted to the downside. The September composite PMI fell sharply from 53.5 to 50.1, its lowest reading this year, signaling weaker momentum in both manufacturing and services. The upcoming Autumn Budget on November 26 also adds uncertainty, as concerns about fiscal tightening or new tax measures continue to weigh on sterling. Overall, while Australia’s steady labour data support a firmer outlook for the AUD, the UK’s sluggish growth and budget-related anxieties are keeping pressure on the pound, underscoring the contrast between Australia’s resilience and the UK’s fragile economic backdrop. Analysis by Coach Angel —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Economic Calendar US Dollar Holds Steady as Markets Focus on Political Developments Amid Sparse Economic Calendar The US dollar traded with a softer tone yesterday due to the lack of new developments and technical corrections. The latest labour indicators pointed to a cooling job market, prompting investors to increase their bets that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates as early as December. A softer labour market generally reduces the urgency for the Fed to maintain high policy rates, lowering the yield advantage of dollar-denominated assets and pressuring the greenback. With no major economic data scheduled for release today, traders are shifting their full attention to political developments in Washington. The House of Representatives is expected to vote on the compromise bill approved by the Senate, which could finally bring an end to the partial government shutdown. However, the reopening may come too late for the release of key economic reports that had been due this week, including October’s Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, and retail sales. The absence of these releases has left investors without fresh macroeconomic guidance, resulting in subdued market activity and limited direction for the dollar. A successful passage of the funding bill could ease political uncertainty but may also reduce the dollar’s safe-haven appeal. Conversely, any delays or renewed fiscal tension could briefly support the greenback. From a broader perspective, the dollar’s performance has remained resilient despite these uncertainties. From the multi-year low recorded on September 17, when the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut of the year, the Dollar Index has rallied roughly 4.3%, reaching its highest level since the end of May at 100.35. It briefly tested the 200 moving average for the first time since early March last week, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. However, the momentum appears to have faded as traders await clarity on both monetary policy and the political front. While the dollar edged slightly higher at times as investors awaited new economic data and central bank commentary, the yen fell to its weakest level since February as optimism increased over progress in ending the US government shutdown. The improved risk appetite reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including the dollar, even as its movements remained steady against most major peers. Emerging market currencies showed mixed reactions to the dollar’s performance. The Indian rupee held steady as state-run banks stepped in to sell dollars and curb volatility, while the British pound gained ground as traders welcomed stability in UK monetary policy and mild dollar softness. These developments highlight that much of the dollar’s recent moves have been driven more by shifts in domestic policy expectations than by broad global risk sentiment. Investor positioning also supports the idea of limited volatility in the near term. Expectations for large dollar swings have fallen to their lowest levels since before the last US presidential election, suggesting a market environment of consolidation rather than sharp directional movement. Overall, the near-term outlook for the US dollar remains neutral to slightly bearish. Unless the reopening of the government and subsequent data releases provide fresh evidence of economic strength, the dollar may continue to trade sideways or experience mild downward pressure. Analysis by Coach Angel, RoboAcademy —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Economic Calendar US Dollar Holds Steady Amid Holiday Quiet and Growing Fed Rate Cut Bets The US dollar traded in a tight range yesterday as investors balanced optimism over potential progress in resolving the US government shutdown with caution surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. Market activity will be notably subdued today as well due to the US bank holiday in observance of Veterans Day, which reduced trading volumes and limited volatility across major currency pairs. With major US banks and bond markets closed, liquidity will be thinner than usual, and many traders could stay on the sidelines. Lower participation often leads to smaller price swings, as fewer large institutional trades move through the market. This quiet trading environment may make it difficult for the dollar to sustain any directional momentum, even as headlines about the shutdown and Federal Reserve policy continued to circulate. A major factor shaping the dollar’s outlook is monetary policy. Investors are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s stance, as expectations of a potential rate cut in December continue to grow. Reuters reported that futures markets are now pricing in roughly a 60% chance of a rate reduction, reflecting concerns that the Fed may shift toward a more accommodative stance amid signs of cooling growth. This has limited the dollar’s upside potential, as lower rates would reduce the currency’s yield advantage. Adding to the uncertainty, the ongoing government shutdown has delayed key US economic data releases, including employment and inflation reports. Without these figures, traders lack a clear picture of the economy’s current strength. If progress is made toward ending the shutdown and upcoming economic data proves supportive, the dollar could strengthen and push the index above the 100 level. Conversely, prolonged fiscal uncertainty or dovish Fed signals could pressure the dollar lower, allowing rival currencies to recover. For now, the US dollar stands firm yet restrained, reflecting a market in pause mode as traders await both political clarity and a return to normal market activity following the Veterans Day holiday. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the United Kingdom’s latest labor market update today is not expected to significantly influence the Bank of England’s decision next month. The forecast shows that the labor market is cooling, but policymakers will have more recent information by the time they meet. The swaps market currently prices in a little more than a 70% chance of a rate cut in December, which would bring the base rate to 3.7%. Traders also see the terminal rate settling around 3.5%, with about a 40% chance that it could fall further to 3.2%. This expectation has contributed to the relative softness in the British pound, indirectly helping to stabilize the dollar’s position against it. Analysis by Coach Angel, RoboAcademy —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Economic Calendar Washington Edges Toward Funding Deal, Beijing Lifts Export Bans — Signs of Global Stability Emerge The US government shutdown, which has disrupted federal operations and delayed payments to employees and states, now appears close to ending after a group of centrist Senate Democrats agreed to support a stopgap deal. The proposal aims to reopen key government agencies, ensure back pay for federal workers, and extend funding for certain departments through January 30, while others would receive full-year appropriations. Although optimism is growing, the bill still faces challenges in the House, where progressive Democrats believe it concedes too much and conservative Republicans are demanding a longer-term funding package lasting through September 30. Despite these divisions, comments from Senate Majority Leader Thune and President Trump — both indicating that an agreement is “very close” — suggest that a resolution is within reach. Meanwhile, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced the suspension of export restrictions on key “dual-use” materials such as gallium, germanium, antimony, and several rare earth and battery components until November 27, 2026. These materials are essential to industries like semiconductors, renewable energy, and defense manufacturing. The suspension of the ban and the easing of export checks on graphite signal Beijing’s willingness to ease trade tensions with the United States. This move follows an earlier agreement between Presidents Xi and Trump to reduce tariffs and pause new trade measures for a year, signaling a more cooperative phase in US–China relations. Adding to the calm tone in markets, there are no major economic data releases scheduled for today. With the absence of significant economic reports, traders are likely to focus on political and policy developments, particularly the progress of the US funding deal and China’s recent trade policy adjustments. The combination of these developments points toward a likely uptrend in market sentiment. The expectation that the US government shutdown could soon end reduces uncertainty, restores confidence in public institutions, and improves the outlook for consumer and business spending. Historically, markets tend to rally when fiscal and political disruptions are resolved, as investors interpret it as a sign of returning stability. At the same time, China’s decision to temporarily lift export bans on critical industrial materials is a relief for manufacturers and technology firms that depend on these resources. This move could ease supply chain pressures, stabilize input costs, and enhance production outlooks for global industries. It also reinforces hopes that US–China trade relations are moving toward a more constructive phase, at least in the short term. On the technical side, the US Dollar Index is currently trading around 99.64, showing a slight pullback after testing the psychological resistance near 100.00. Based on the technical indicators shown in the chart — the 200 EMA, Ichimoku Cloud and TDI - the technical bias appears neutral to slightly bullish, but with signs of near-term consolidation or mild. The broader structure favors the bulls as long as the price stays above the Ichimoku Cloud and the 99.00 support zone. However, failure to reclaim and sustain above the 200 EMA (around 100.00) could trigger a short-term pullback toward 98.30 before any renewed buying pressure emerges. Analysis by Coach Angel, RoboAcademy —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Economic Calendar Trump’s Tariff Warning Adds Uncertainty as Canada’s Job Market Cools Last night, US President Trump warned that it would be “devastating” if the Supreme Court rules against his tariffs, stressing that tariffs remain a central pillar of his economic strategy. He clarified that there are no new tariff announcements for now, but if the court decision goes against him, his team would need to develop a “game two plan”—alternative measures to support US industries, though he acknowledged these would take longer to implement. For financial markets, Trump’s remarks underscore renewed uncertainty surrounding his trade policy. If the Supreme Court ultimately strikes down or limits his authority to impose tariffs, it could ease inflation pressures and improve global trade sentiment, leading to mild weakness in the US dollar as traders price in lower inflation risks and potentially a less aggressive Federal Reserve stance. Conversely, if the tariffs are upheld, the USD could remain supported by expectations of continued protectionist policies that may sustain inflation and keep interest rate expectations higher for longer. Meanwhile, attention turns to today’s Canadian labour market data, which are expected to show slight weakness compared to last month. Such an outcome would signal that Canada’s job market is entering a mild cooling phase rather than a sharp downturn. A stable unemployment rate alongside a small decline in employment would suggest that the labour force itself may have also contracted, as some individuals step out of active job searching. Economically, this would be consistent with the broader trend of a gradual slowdown despite recent monetary easing. Although the Bank of Canada has been cutting interest rates since mid-2024 to support growth, the delayed effects of earlier rate hikes are still being felt. Households and businesses remain under pressure from past borrowing costs, particularly in housing, construction, and consumer-focused sectors. Companies remain cautious about expansion and hiring until demand strengthens more convincingly. By contrast, service industries such as healthcare, education, and public administration continue to show resilience, preventing a steeper drop in overall employment. From a market standpoint, investors would likely interpret this data as confirmation that Canada’s economic momentum is fading. A flat or slightly negative employment print, coupled with a jobless rate above seven percent, would reinforce the view that the labour market is loosening, reducing wage and inflation pressures. Such an outcome would likely weigh on the Canadian dollar, particularly against the dollar, as traders anticipate a more dovish tone from the Bank of Canada in the coming months. Weaker employment figures typically strengthen expectations of further policy easing, especially as policymakers balance supporting growth against still-moderating inflation. Analysis by Coach Angel, RoboAcademy —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Economic Calender Ahead of the Bank of England’s policy decision today, markets have become more uncertain about the near-term path of interest rates. Before the latest inflation data, traders saw only a slim 12% chance of a rate cut, but that probability has since climbed to around one-third, prompting Goldman Sachs to forecast a 25-basis-point reduction. The slightly softer-than-expected inflation reading of 3.8%, versus the forecast of 4%, has fueled speculation that rate cuts could come sooner than anticipated. However, inflation remains well above the BoE’s 2% target, while wage growth and services inflation are still elevated, making policy makers hesitant to ease too quickly. The broader economic picture is mixed. Growth is stagnant at just 0.3%, job vacancies are declining, and government borrowing is rising sharply, suggesting that the UK economy is under strain. Yet cutting rates now could risk further weakening the pound, which already fell 2.6% in October, and reignite inflation through higher import costs. For this reason, most analysts expect the Monetary Policy Committee to keep rates on hold this week and potentially through the end of the year. Markets currently price a 33% chance of a November cut and a 70% chance of one in December, with consensus still leaning toward the first reduction coming in early 2026. Bond yields have softened, with the 10-year gilt yield seeing its biggest weekly drop since April, but the decline is more a reflection of global trends than clear domestic policy shifts. If rates remain unchanged, yields are expected to stabilize near current levels, with modest downward pressure on longer-term bonds as economic data weakens further. Overall, the market tone suggests a cautiously neutral outlook for the near term. While there are growing expectations of a rate cut, the BoE’s divided stance and persistent inflation pressures are likely to cap any strong uptrend in bond or equity prices for now. The pound, meanwhile, could stay under mild downward pressure as traders weigh the risk of future monetary easing against weak domestic growth. In short, the market appears to be entering a holding pattern—awaiting more data and clarity before committing to a definitive direction Analysis by Coach Angel, RoboAcademy —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Economic Calender The US dollar paused its recent rally after touching multi-month highs, as investors reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve policy and awaited key economic data later in the week. While momentum in the greenback has cooled slightly, data suggest that underlying support remains strong amid tempered expectations for early rate cuts and renewed risk aversion in global markets. The US Dollar Index eased modestly after climbing to a three-month high earlier in the week, reflecting a brief consolidation rather than a reversal of trend. The pullback came as US 10-year Treasury yields slipped from recent peaks, providing some relief to gold prices, which had been under pressure from dollar strength. Traders remain focused on upcoming US economic indicators—including labor market data and manufacturing PMI reports—that could influence the Federal Reserve’s tone in the coming weeks. The Federal Reserve’s recent guidance has been a key driver of the dollar’s trajectory. In comments last week, Chair Jerome Powell signaled that further rate cuts are not guaranteed, dampening market bets on near-term policy easing. This shift has strengthened the dollar’s position, as investors recalibrate expectations for US interest rate differentials relative to other major economies. The dollar’s stabilization has coincided with a reduced likelihood of additional rate cuts, which continues to provide a floor under the currency. Beyond US policy dynamics, global market developments are adding to the dollar’s appeal. In the United Kingdom, the pound fell to its lowest level since April amid concerns over potential tax increases in the upcoming budget, as reported by The Guardian. The decline in sterling and broader risk-off sentiment driven by volatility in AI-related tech stocks have helped sustain demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. I expect the US dollar to remain range-bound in the short term, supported by firm yields and cautious Fed communication. The key risk for dollar bulls lies in softer US economic data or renewed dovish signals from policymakers, which could trigger a corrective move lower. Conversely, if data remains robust or risk aversion deepens globally, the dollar could extend its gains. For now, the consensus across markets is that the greenback’s rally has paused—but not ended. Analysis by Coach Angel, RoboAcademy —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Economic Calendar The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in its upcoming policy meeting today, after the country’s inflation data for September and the third quarter came in hotter than expected. The stronger inflation figures effectively ended any remaining market bets for a rate cut this year, with traders now expecting the RBA to hold rates steady until at least next spring before possibly easing. Futures markets reflect this sentiment, showing only a 7% chance of a cut this week — a sharp drop from 81% just two weeks ago. Governor Bullock has emphasized that inflation remains a bigger concern than rising unemployment, and with the trimmed mean CPI rising to the top of the RBA’s 2–3% target band, the central bank’s cautious stance appears justified. The stronger inflation data have also raised questions about whether the RBA’s current rate of 3.6% might already be its terminal rate for this cycle. However, if unemployment rises sharply or if job losses accelerate, that could eventually push the bank toward easing. So far, job market signals are mixed. ANZ’s job advertisements fell by 3.5% in September, the fastest drop since late 2023, suggesting early signs of softening demand for labor. Still, this alone is unlikely to be enough to sway the RBA in the short term. Additional labor and activity indicators — like PMI surveys and construction data — will be watched closely, but these typically have only a limited effect on the currency. Given the combination of stubborn inflation and a central bank leaning toward caution, the outlook for the Australian dollar appears mildly bullish in the near term. The RBA’s reluctance to cut rates and any hints of hawkishness in its forward guidance could lend further support to the Aussie. However, if future data show clear weakness in employment or a faster economic slowdown, this could cap gains later on. For now, market conditions point toward a short-term uptrend in the AUD. Analysis by Coach Angel, RoboAcademy —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.

Economic Calendar Even with the US government shut down for the entire month of October, the dollar and stock market both rallied. It was only the second month this year that the DXY posted gains, showing how resilient the American economy remains in the face of political and fiscal challenges. Growth continues to surprise on the upside. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDP tracker points to a strong 4% expansion in the third quarter, compared to the market consensus of just 2.7%. Much of this momentum is being driven by spending tied to artificial intelligence, which analysts estimate accounts for more than half of US growth this year. The Federal Reserve delivered a rate cut in late October but worked hard to push back against expectations of another cut in December. Fed Chair Powell made it clear that policymakers are not convinced more easing is necessary, especially since headline inflation has risen for five straight months. After Powell’s comments, the market scaled back expectations for a December cut — from more than 90% odds to around 70%. Still, that remains high and could shift again as more Fed officials start speaking following the end of their pre-meeting blackout period. For now, the Fed appears cautious. Powell explicitly said he does not expect a sharp weakening in the labor market, suggesting that the bar for another rate cut is quite high. Inflation remains elevated, and with limited economic data due to the government shutdown, the central bank may prefer to wait before taking further action. The longer the shutdown lasts, however, the more pressure it will put on growth. About 1.4 million federal employees missed paychecks in October, half of whom were furloughed. Economists estimate that every week of shutdown shaves around 0.1% off GDP. There’s also another potential twist ahead: the Supreme Court will soon hear oral arguments challenging the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). A secondary market has already developed for possible tariff refunds, should the Court decide those measures exceeded presidential authority. That uncertainty could stir volatility in trade-sensitive sectors. Across the Atlantic, the euro remains under strain. The yield advantage that US assets hold over their European counterparts has narrowed from above 200bp in May to around 160bp now, but it remains significant. Current policy rates show a 225 bp gap, and markets expect that to narrow to about 100 bp within a year — but investors are not betting on the euro gaining much from that. Europe faces several structural and political challenges. China’s new export controls on critical minerals and electric vehicle battery technology threaten to hurt European industry, particularly as the region is already coping with US tariffs, competition from cheap Chinese imports, and energy shocks from Russia’s hybrid warfare. Meanwhile, the Netherlands’ takeover of Nexperia — a chip company previously bought by a Chinese firm — has irritated Beijing and complicated relations at a time when Washington has agreed to relax some sanctions on Chinese subsidiaries. Germany’s economy, the region’s largest, continues to stagnate. France, on the other hand, is mired in political tension, and its fiscal position has weakened. Markets now believe the European Central Bank has finished its easing cycle; current pricing suggests less than a 50% chance of another rate cut next year. Taken together, these factors point to limited upside for the euro. Without stronger growth or renewed investor confidence, the single currency is likely to remain sluggish or drift lower. The British pound has been on uncertain footing as speculation builds over a potential Bank of England rate cut. Market-implied odds jumped from about 25% at the end of September to nearly 70% at the end of October. Some traders even see a small chance of a rate hike at the November 6 meeting — though that seems exaggerated given current conditions. More importantly, the focus is turning to the Fall Budget due on November 26, which could have a far greater impact on sterling. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is under pressure to reconcile Labour’s campaign promises with the UK’s fiscal constraints. The government’s projected £10 billion buffer is considered too small, and efforts to expand it may require tax hikes or spending cuts. That is unlikely to please either businesses or households. Measures under consideration include raising marginal tax rates on high incomes, adjusting income brackets to increase tax collection, and even taxing private school fees. Political challenges also linger. Deputy Labour leader Powell’s appointment reflects the party’s left-leaning faction gaining more influence, and a recent by-election loss in Wales — the first in more than a century — underscores shifting voter sentiment. Meanwhile, the Reform Party led by Nigel Farage continues to attract attention, adding further uncertainty to the political landscape. These factors suggest a heavy policy environment for the pound, with risks tilted to the downside. The Canadian dollar has also struggled, weighed down by weak growth and renewed tensions with Washington. The Bank of Canada began cutting rates last year as the domestic economy slowed, but disruptions from the US continue to spill over. A recent controversy erupted when Ontario ran an advertisement during the baseball World Series featuring former President Reagan criticizing tariffs — an ad that infuriated Donald Trump, who promptly suspended trade talks with Canada and announced a new 10% tariff, though it has yet to be implemented. Prime Minister Carney’s government is pushing to expand Canada’s trade ties beyond the US, with a goal of doubling exports to non-US markets within a decade. However, that strategy could create new friction if Canada pursues closer trade relations with China. For now, Canada’s key export commodities, including potash, remain stable, but its overall economic outlook is fragile. The divergence between a cautious Federal Reserve and a more accommodative Bank of Canada favors a stronger dollar over the loonie. Analysis by Coach Angel, RoboAcademy —— Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.