North American Economic Data Today Points to Cautious Growth
Canada’s monthly gross domestic product data today are closely watched because they give the clearest picture of how the economy is performing right now, rather than relying on earlier quarterly figures. Over the past 12 months, Canada’s monthly GDP has shown slow and uneven movement, with small gains followed by occasional declines. Earlier in 2025, growth was supported by services and government spending, but momentum weakened during the middle of the year as household demand softened and higher interest rates weighed on activity. In August, the economy contracted by 0.3%, highlighting this fragility. September then showed a modest rebound of 0.2%, offering some relief but not enough to signal a clear recovery. For today’s October release, most forecasts point to another contraction, with expectations centered around a decline of roughly 0.2% to 0.3% compared with September. This outlook reflects weaker manufacturing output, softer resource activity, and subdued consumer spending. If confirmed, the data would suggest that Canada entered the final quarter of the year on a weak footing, reinforcing concerns that growth remains fragile and that policy support may be needed if conditions fail to improve.
In the United States, durable goods orders provide an important window into business investment and confidence. Over the last year, orders for long‑lasting manufactured goods showed moderate growth but with fluctuations month to month, reflecting periods of stronger investment in machinery, transportation equipment, and other durable products, followed by softer demand as global uncertainties and higher interest rates weighed on spending decisions. The most recent data for September indicated a 0.5% increase compared with August, showing that businesses were still willing to invest, albeit cautiously. For today’s release, the forecast points to a decline of 1.5% m/m, signaling weaker demand in the manufacturing sector. If this forecast materializes, it would suggest that businesses are scaling back investment as economic growth slows, reflecting concerns about softer consumer demand, rising borrowing costs, and uncertainty in global trade conditions. A decline in durable goods orders of this magnitude could reinforce the view that the US economy is slowing but not yet in recession, highlighting the selective caution in corporate spending rather than a broad collapse.
US consumer confidence has also been subdued, with the Conference Board’s index falling to 88.7 in November, reflecting concerns about inflation, jobs, and overall economic conditions. Today’s December reading is projected to show a modest rebound to the low 90s. While this would indicate a slight improvement in household sentiment, consumers are likely to remain cautious in their spending, particularly on big-ticket items and discretionary goods. Combined with softer durable goods orders, the signals suggest that economic activity could continue to expand at a modest pace, with growth concentrated in resilient areas such as services and sectors less sensitive to interest rates, while investment and spending on durable goods may lag. Together, today’s data could reinforce the narrative that the US economy is moderating, with households and businesses adjusting carefully to current economic conditions rather than accelerating sharply.
Analysis by Coach Angel
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