Calm Economic Calendar, But Trump and Putin Keep Investors on Edge
It’s a relatively calm Friday on the economic calendar, with only one major data release drawing attention: Canada’s latest GDP report. Over the past 12 months, the economy has seen a mix of expansion and contraction. Late 2024 and early 2025 posted solid gains, with the first quarter growing 0.5%. But momentum faltered in the second quarter of 2025 when GDP slipped 0.4%, largely because of weaker exports and a pullback in business investment.
Recent months, however, have hinted at a mild recovery. Sectors like manufacturing, finance and insurance, and oil and gas have shown early signs of stabilization. While growth remains soft overall, the data points to a gradual improvement rather than a continued decline.
With that backdrop, expectations for today’s GDP release are modest. Analysts generally anticipate a small positive gain, with forecasts pointing to roughly 0.1 to 0.3% quarter-over-quarter growth. On a monthly basis, the economy is also expected to show a mild improvement, with GDP m/m likely in the range of 0.1 to 0.2%, supported by steady activity in services, manufacturing, and energy. On a yearly basis, Canada is still expected to remain in positive territory, likely landing somewhere between 0.5 and 1% as the economy gradually recovers from the earlier slowdown.
Risks remain on both sides. Exports could continue to drag, especially if global demand stays weak, and cautious business investment may limit the pace of any rebound. But stronger household spending or a pickup in construction activity could offer a lift.
With no other major releases scheduled, markets will likely shift their focus to politics, where headlines are already stirring reactions.
In the US, President Trump claimed that the country could “almost completely eliminate income tax” using tariff revenue, a statement that immediately sparked debate across economic and political circles. He also commented on Venezuela, saying the US would begin stopping them “on land soon,” adding to geopolitical tension.
Across the globe, Russian President Putin publicly addressed the developing US-backed peace framework for the first time, saying Moscow is ready for “serious discussions.” Putin noted that the outline of the US-Ukraine draft could form the basis of a future peace agreement and that Washington appears to be taking Russia’s position into account ahead of next week’s talks.
With the economic calendar largely empty, markets may react more sharply than usual to any follow-up statements or political developments throughout the day. If Canada’s GDP surprises — or if further comments from Washington, Moscow, or Kyiv emerge — traders could see an otherwise quiet Friday turn into an active session.
Analysis by Coach Angel
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Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions.
