US Labor and Housing Data Remain Mixed While Spain Inflation Stabilizes
According to preliminary ADP data based on a four‑week moving average, for the period ending near the end of November 2025 private employers added an average of about 16,250 jobs per week, up from very low or negative figures in prior weeks, reflecting an uptick in hiring in the second half of November. Looking at broader monthly figures, the ADP National Employment Report showed that private sector employment increased by 42K jobs in October 2025 compared with the prior month, and annual pay growth was up about 4.5 % on a year‑over‑year basis. On the other hand, data compiled from another measure show that the monthly ADP employment change for November was negative at roughly -31K, a swing from positive job additions earlier in the year and well below the positive gains reported in prior months such as October when employment rose. Over the last year private employment has seen repeated fluctuations with both gains and losses reported, indicating that hiring conditions have been uneven. For today’s release the updated weekly ADP figures may show continued modest hiring or small declines in some weeks, consistent with the recent pattern of volatility in private payrolls.
Turning to the home price indicators, the US Home Price Index or HPI m/m and the S&P/Case‑Shiller Composite‑20 HPI y/y tell us about changes in residential property values. The S&P/Case‑Shiller index measures house price trends across major metropolitan areas. The most recent year‑over‑year data for October 2025 show that the S&P/Case‑Shiller Composite‑20 Home Price Index rose by about 1.4 % compared with the same period a year earlier, unchanged from the prior reading, and slower than the higher annual gains seen earlier in 2025 when year‑over‑year increases were nearer 2 % and above in mid‑year. For the monthly data the Case‑Shiller Composite home price index level was reported around an index value of 337.71 for September 2025, up slightly compared with the prior month, and up about 1.37 % compared with a year earlier, pointing to modest price growth. These trends reflect a housing market that has seen slower price increases compared with previous years, as higher mortgage costs and affordability challenges have constrained buyer demand. For the upcoming release we will see if recent modest price growth continues for the latest month, with expectations that prices may rise slightly on a monthly basis and that the year‑over‑year increase may remain around levels similar to the most recent figures rather than showing a sharp acceleration.
In Europe, Spanish Flash CPI y/y gives an early signal on inflation in Spain and often serves as a lead indicator for broader eurozone inflation trends. The latest flash estimate for Spanish inflation showed that consumer prices rose by about 3.0 % in November 2025 compared with the same month a year earlier, slightly lower than the prior year’s 3.1 % reading. This moderate inflation rate reflects slower price pressures than seen in earlier months but still suggests that inflation remains above the European Central Bank’s general target of price stability around 2%. The flash estimate for Spain also showed that underlying inflation excluding volatile energy and food prices was around 2.6 % on a year‑over‑year basis, indicating that core price pressures have not eased dramatically. For the next flash release, markets expect Spain’s headline inflation to remain near 3.0 %, consistent with the recent trend of stable but moderate price increases.
Altogether these data releases form part of a broader picture of economic conditions at the end of 2025. As the year closes many traders and financial institutions will be in holiday mode with lower participation and reduced liquidity, so any market reaction to these releases may be limited; caution is advisable for the thinner trading conditions around year‑end.
Analysis by Coach Angel
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Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions
