Global PMIs Signal Steady Private Sector Growth While Geopolitics Take Center Stage
Today’s PMI readings give a snapshot of how private sector activity is shaping up across major economies as 2026 begins. In the United Kingdom the composite PMI for December came in at 52.1, up from 51.2 in November, showing that overall private sector activity expanded at a steady pace. Growth was driven by both services and manufacturing, with businesses reporting higher new orders and output, and confidence improving as the year ended, even as firms continued to navigate cost pressures and cautious hiring. Over the past twelve months the UK composite PMI has generally stayed above the neutral fifty mark, reflecting steady expansion in the private sector despite some fluctuations during periods of uncertainty.
In the United States the ISM manufacturing PMI released yesterday showed that factory activity continued to contract at the end of 2025, with a reading of 47.9%, down from 48.2% in November and marking the lowest manufacturing reading of the year. A PMI below 50 signals contraction, and this was the tenth consecutive month of declining manufacturing activity, with new orders and inventories remaining weak even as production and supplier deliveries showed modest expansion. Only a small number of manufacturing industries reported growth, while the broader U.S. economy continued expanding. Meanwhile, today’s S&P Global US composite PMI is expected at 52.9, reflecting expansion across the overall private sector, led by services and supported by stabilizing manufacturing.
In the eurozone the flash composite PMI for December showed overall private sector expansion at 51.9, slightly down from 52.8 in November. Services continued to grow, with today’s eurozone services PMI forecast at 52.6, indicating continued expansion and signaling that services remain the main driver of growth across the region. Manufacturing remained weaker with contracting output and new orders in key economies such as Germany and Italy. Looking back, the final eurozone services PMI in November was 52.6, showing that services have been consistently supporting overall private sector expansion throughout the past year despite ongoing manufacturing challenges.
It is important to note that the PMI data released today are expected numbers, and while they give a snapshot of private sector trends, they are not the main drivers of market moves at the moment. Current market focus is heavily on recent developments in Venezuela following a US operation that resulted in the capture of Nicolás Maduro and his wife on criminal charges, and on statements from U.S. and Venezuelan officials about the next steps. These geopolitical events are drawing international attention and are likely to have a stronger impact on safe-haven assets and commodity currencies than today’s expected PMI releases. Real actionable economic data that could meaningfully move markets will start coming in from tomorrow, so traders are advised to exercise caution and not overreact to today’s expected PMI releases.
Taken together, these readings suggest that private sector activity at the start of 2026 remains broadly positive in the UK, the US, and the eurozone, largely driven by services and consumer demand, while manufacturing faces ongoing headwinds. However, for today, geopolitical developments in Venezuela outweigh the expected PMI data in terms of market impact, and caution is warranted for traders and investors.
Analysis by Coach Angel
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Disclaimer: Investing is risky. Investors should study the information before making investment decisions
